SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
They are one of 4 teams with 10/1, 9.1% odds to win the Cup. If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Avalanche would be a good betting value. Their 8.3% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #4 in the league. They are a good bet to win the West at 4/1, 20%. Their sim chance is 21%. They are projected to finish with 108 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. They are making the playoffs. Their chances of winning the division stand at 29.3%. They were a -310 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 30.3% at 3/1, 25%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the West.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 37.9-31.1. They are ahead of expectations with their 41-19-8 record. If you bet on them to win every game you would be up big (+543 units). They are 35-34 against the puck line for a 94 profit. Their under-over record is 35-32-1. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the New York Rangers. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|3/11 NYR||65%||1-1-1, -148||2-1|
|3/13 VAN||56%||2-2-1, -116||3-2|
|3/15 LV||53%||4-1, +374||3-2|
|3/17 SJ||71%||5-7, -302||7-4-1|
|3/19 NSH||65%||4-2, +357||1-5|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is +0.67 which ranks #3 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #5. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #2 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #8 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 8 games is 0 (#16 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 69 Games||3.38 (#4)||10.5% (#7)||32.3 (#9)|
|Road||3.16 (#8)||10.6% (#5)||29.9 (#20)|
|Home||3.62 (#3)||10.3% (#11)||35.1 (#3)|
|Last 8 Games||2.75 (#17)||9.3% (#15)||29.6 (#22)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||2.71 (#6)||91.3% (#4)||31.2 (#17)|
|Road||2.46 (#2)||92.2% (#1||31.7 (#10)|
|Home||3 (#19)||90.2% (#18)||30.8 (#19)|
|Last 8 Games||2.75 (#17)||90.9% (#17)||30.1 (#13)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Philipp Grubauer who is projected to be the #8 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Philipp Grubauer||81||8||Tuukka Rask||Sergei Bobrovsky|
|Nathan MacKinnon||100||5||Evgeni Malkin||Sidney Crosby|
|Mikko Rantanen||98||5||Mitch Marner||Teuvo Teravainen|
|Gabriel Landeskog||99||6||Claude Giroux||Andrei Svechnikov|
|Nazem Kadri||59||31||Ryan Getzlaf||Matt Duchene|
|Cale Makar||99||7||Kris Letang||Alex Pietrangelo|
|Vladislav Namestnikov||20||38||Patrik Laine||Josh Bailey|
|Andre Burakovsky||73||48||Martin Necas||Dustin Brown|
|J.T. Compher||17||64||Christian Dvorak||Kyle Turris|
|Pavel Francouz||71||48||Ilya Samsonov||Jake Allen|