NHL Outlook: Bet on the Colorado Avalanche to Win the West at 4/1, 20%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Golden Knights

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

They are one of 4 teams with 10/1, 9.1% odds to win the Cup. If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Avalanche would be a good betting value. Their 8.3% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #4 in the league. They are a good bet to win the West at 4/1, 20%. Their sim chance is 21%. They are projected to finish with 108 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. They are making the playoffs. Their chances of winning the division stand at 29.3%. They were a -310 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 30.3% at 3/1, 25%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 37.9-31.1. They are ahead of expectations with their 41-19-8 record. If you bet on them to win every game you would be up big (+543 units). They are 35-34 against the puck line for a 94 profit. Their under-over record is 35-32-1. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the New York Rangers. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/11 NYR65%1-1-1, -1482-1
3/13 VAN56%2-2-1, -1163-2
3/15 LV53%4-1, +3743-2
3/17 SJ71%5-7, -3027-4-1
3/19 NSH65%4-2, +3571-5

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is +0.67 which ranks #3 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #5. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #2 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #8 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 8 games is 0 (#16 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 69 Games3.38 (#4)10.5% (#7)32.3 (#9)
Road3.16 (#8)10.6% (#5)29.9 (#20)
Home3.62 (#3)10.3% (#11)35.1 (#3)
Last 8 Games2.75 (#17)9.3% (#15)29.6 (#22)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.71 (#6)91.3% (#4)31.2 (#17)
Road2.46 (#2)92.2% (#131.7 (#10)
Home3 (#19)90.2% (#18)30.8 (#19)
Last 8 Games2.75 (#17)90.9% (#17)30.1 (#13)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Philipp Grubauer who is projected to be the #8 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Philipp Grubauer818Tuukka RaskSergei Bobrovsky
Nathan MacKinnon1005Evgeni MalkinSidney Crosby
Mikko Rantanen985Mitch MarnerTeuvo Teravainen
Gabriel Landeskog996Claude GirouxAndrei Svechnikov
Nazem Kadri5931Ryan GetzlafMatt Duchene
Cale Makar997Kris LetangAlex Pietrangelo
Vladislav Namestnikov2038Patrik LaineJosh Bailey
Andre Burakovsky7348Martin NecasDustin Brown
J.T. Compher1764Christian DvorakKyle Turris
Pavel Francouz7148Ilya SamsonovJake Allen