SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their odds to win it all are 20/1, 4.8% (#10). Even with the juice, the Oilers are a good betting value. Their 5.1% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #7 in the league. They are also a good bet to win the West at 10/1, 9.1%. Their sim chance is 15.2%. They are projected to finish with 97 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 85.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs. Their chances of winning their division stand at 35%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the West.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 33.7-36.3. At 37-24-8 they are in line with these expectations. Money line betters would be up big taking them in every game (+771 units). They are 39-31 against the puck line for a -46 loss. Their over-under record is 33-32 with 4 pushes. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Winnipeg Jets. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|3/11 WPG||55%||2-1-2, -65||3-2|
|3/13 NYI||57%||2-1, +142||3-0|
|3/15 PHI||54%||2-0-1, +61||2-1|
|3/16 WAS||32%||2-1, +115||1-1-1|
|3/18 OTT||64%||1-1-1, -135||2-0-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.13 which ranks #13 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #10. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #5 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #23 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 8 games is +0.5 (#9 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 70 Games||3.14 (#14)||10.7% (#3)||29.3 (#29)|
|Road||3.03 (#15)||10.3% (#8)||29.3 (#24)|
|Home||3.27 (#12)||11.2% (#3)||29.3 (#29)|
|Last 8 Games||3.12 (#9)||11.5% (#3)||27.1 (#30)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||3.01 (#15)||90.6% (#13)||32.1 (#21)|
|Road||2.7 (#4)||91.5% (#7||31.6 (#9)|
|Home||3.36 (#29)||89.7% (#25)||32.7 (#27)|
|Last 8 Games||2.62 (#13)||92.8% (#6)||36.6 (#31)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Leon Draisaitl who is projected to be the #1 Center the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Leon Draisaitl||100||1||--||Connor McDavid|
|Connor McDavid||100||2||Leon Draisaitl||Mika Zibanejad|
|Mike Smith||61||21||Carter Hutton||David Rittich|
|Ryan Nugent-Hopkins||95||8||Andrei Svechnikov||J.T. Miller|
|Andreas Athanasiou||52||15||Jason Zucker||Max Pacioretty|
|Kailer Yamamoto||72||35||Kevin Fiala||Reilly Smith|
|Zack Kassian||44||46||Jake Virtanen||Martin Necas|
|Tyler Ennis||23||42||Jeff Skinner||Frank Vatrano|
|Alex Chiasson||9||63||Luke Kunin||Craig Smith|
|Darnell Nurse||86||39||Zach Werenski||Charlie McAvoy|