NHL Outlook: Bet on the Edmonton Oilers to Win the Championship at 20/1, 4.8%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Stars

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 20/1, 4.8% (#10). Even with the juice, the Oilers are a good betting value. Their 5.1% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #7 in the league. They are also a good bet to win the West at 10/1, 9.1%. Their sim chance is 15.2%. They are projected to finish with 97 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 85.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs. Their chances of winning their division stand at 35%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 33.7-36.3. At 37-24-8 they are in line with these expectations. Money line betters would be up big taking them in every game (+771 units). They are 39-31 against the puck line for a -46 loss. Their over-under record is 33-32 with 4 pushes. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Winnipeg Jets. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/11 WPG55%2-1-2, -653-2
3/13 NYI57%2-1, +1423-0
3/15 PHI54%2-0-1, +612-1
3/16 WAS32%2-1, +1151-1-1
3/18 OTT64%1-1-1, -1352-0-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.13 which ranks #13 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #10. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #5 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #23 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 8 games is +0.5 (#9 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 70 Games3.14 (#14)10.7% (#3)29.3 (#29)
Road3.03 (#15)10.3% (#8)29.3 (#24)
Home3.27 (#12)11.2% (#3)29.3 (#29)
Last 8 Games3.12 (#9)11.5% (#3)27.1 (#30)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.01 (#15)90.6% (#13)32.1 (#21)
Road2.7 (#4)91.5% (#731.6 (#9)
Home3.36 (#29)89.7% (#25)32.7 (#27)
Last 8 Games2.62 (#13)92.8% (#6)36.6 (#31)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Leon Draisaitl who is projected to be the #1 Center the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Leon Draisaitl1001--Connor McDavid
Connor McDavid1002Leon DraisaitlMika Zibanejad
Mike Smith6121Carter HuttonDavid Rittich
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins958Andrei SvechnikovJ.T. Miller
Andreas Athanasiou5215Jason ZuckerMax Pacioretty
Kailer Yamamoto7235Kevin FialaReilly Smith
Zack Kassian4446Jake VirtanenMartin Necas
Tyler Ennis2342Jeff SkinnerFrank Vatrano
Alex Chiasson963Luke KuninCraig Smith
Darnell Nurse8639Zach WerenskiCharlie McAvoy