NHL Outlook: Bet on the St. Louis Blues to Win the West at 4/1, 20%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Avalanche

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

They are one of 4 teams with 10/1, 9.1% odds to win the Cup. If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Blues would be a good betting value. Their 8.1% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #5 in the league. They are a good bet to win the West at 4/1, 20%. Their sim chance is 21.3%. They are projected to finish with 110 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 96.5. They are making the playoffs. Their chances of winning the division stand at 70.7%. They were a -240 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 36.4% at 5/1, 16.7%. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 38.4-31.6. At 41-18-10 they ahead of expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be up big (+302 units). They are 33-37 against the puck line for a 61 profit. Their over-under record is 34-34-1. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Anaheim Ducks. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/11 ANA63%3-2, -252-3
3/13 SJ76%7-2-2, +1985-6
3/15 OTT74%2-1, -41-2
3/17 PHI50%2-0-1, +492-1
3/19 CAR48%2-1, +672-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.44 which ranks #5 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #3. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #5 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #12 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.43 (#10 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 70 Games3.13 (#15)10.2% (#10)30.6 (#22)
Road3.03 (#14)10.2% (#9)29.6 (#23)
Home3.23 (#13)10.2% (#12)31.6 (#21)
Last 7 Games2.86 (#11)9.7% (#10)29.4 (#24)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.69 (#5)90.9% (#10)29.6 (#4)
Road3 (#11)90.6% (#1331.8 (#11)
Home2.37 (#4)91.4% (#9)27.4 (#1)
Last 7 Games2.43 (#8)91.5% (#14)28.4 (#5)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Jordan Binnington who is projected to be the #6 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Jordan Binnington896Igor ShesterkinTuukka Rask
Vladimir Tarasenko848Mike HoffmanDavid Perron
David Perron999Vladimir TarasenkoBryan Rust
Ryan O'Reilly9721Bo HorvatJean-Gabriel Pageau
Brayden Schenn9525Mark ScheifeleBrock Nelson
Jaden Schwartz9118Kyle ConnorVictor Olofsson
Alex Pietrangelo1008Cale MakarQuinn Hughes
Robert Thomas3054Mikael BacklundPaul Stastny
Zach Sanford2051Jesper BrattJonathan Drouin
Colton Parayko7545Jacob TroubaDamon Severson