NHL Outlook: Bet on the Tampa Bay Lightning to Win the Championship at 6/1, 14.3%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Bruins

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Oddsmakers have the Lightning as the favorite to win the championship. They win the championship in 25.2% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. They are also a good bet to win the East at 3/1, 25%. Their sim chance is 35.3%. The Lightning are averaging 110.6 points per sim which makes them a decent bet to go over 108.5. At -1000 the Lightning are a good value to make the playoffs with a 98.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 11/10, 47.6%. They win the division in 64.4% of simulations. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They overachieved last season. Their game odds projected to 49.4 wins. Their 62-16-4 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +1714. They had a strong puck line record going 41-41 for (+1057 profit). They went over 44 times and came in under 35 times. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Florida Panthers. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
10/3 FLA70%4-0, +2663-1
10/5 FLA56%4-0, +2663-1
10/6 CAR59%3-0, +2211-2
10/10 TOR56%3-1, +1611-3
10/12 OTT70%3-1, -23-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is +1.01 (includes playoff games) which ranks #1 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. They are the #1 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 86 Games3.8 (#1)11.9% (#1)31.8 (#14)
Road3.67 (#1)11.5% (#1)32 (#10)
Home3.93 (#2)12.4% (#1)31.7 (#18)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.79 (#10)91.2% (#6)31.9 (#20)
Road3 (#12)90.6% (#1232.1 (#15)
Home2.58 (#8)91.9% (#4)31.7 (#19)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Andrei Vasilevskiy who is projected to be the #1 Goalie. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Andrei Vasilevskiy851--Tuukka Rask
Nikita Kucherov1001--Patrick Kane
Steven Stamkos992Connor McDavidNathan MacKinnon
Brayden Point985Sidney CrosbyAleksander Barkov
Kevin Lynch030Ryan Nugent-HopkinsBo Horvat
Carter Verhaeghe121Jakub VoracekKyle Palmieri
Victor Hedman957Morgan RiellyTyson Barrie
Cory Conacher025Evgenii DadonovAnthony Mantha
Kevin Shattenkirk4315Roman JosiJake Muzzin
Yanni Gourde7232Ryan DzingelErik Haula