NHL Outlook: Bet on the Tampa Bay Lightning to Win the Championship at 6/1, 14.3%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Bruins

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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Oddsmakers have the Lightning as the favorite to win the championship. They are a good bet to win the championship (21.2 percent chance). They are also a good bet to win the East at 3/1, 25%. Their sim chance is 27.5%. They are projected to finish with 108 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 108.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs, but they do not have a great chance of winning their division (29.7%). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 48 games, their expected win percentage is 60% based on the money line odds. At 29-15-4 they are in line with these expectations. Money line backers would be down 106 units. They are not good on puck lines (18-30) for a -956 loss. Their over-under record is 27-20-1. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Dallas Stars. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
1/27 DAL65%2-0-1, +141-1-1
1/29 LA72%3-0, +1113-0
1/31 ANA72%2-1, +81-2
2/1 SJ67%2-1, +163-0
2/4 LV56%1-0-1, -140-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is +0.75 which ranks #3 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #5. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #2 ranked team among home teams. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +1.33 which ranks them #6 over this stretch, slightly worse than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 48 Games3.6 (#3)11.2% (#1)32.1 (#10)
Road3.12 (#9)11.1% (#2)28.2 (#29)
Home4.08 (#1)11.3% (#5)36 (#3)
Last 6 Games3 (#13)10.4% (#12)28.8 (#24)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.85 (#9)90.8% (#11)31 (#13)
Road2.79 (#6)91.1% (#1031.5 (#8)
Home2.92 (#17)90.5% (#20)30.6 (#16)
Last 6 Games1.67 (#3)93.9% (#3)27.2 (#3)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Andrei Vasilevskiy who is projected to be the #1 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Andrei Vasilevskiy881--Braden Holtby
Nikita Kucherov1001--David Pastrnak
Steven Stamkos1005Artemi PanarinTaylor Hall
Brayden Point9910Sidney CrosbyPatrice Bergeron
Victor Hedman1003Roman JosiKeith Yandle
Alex Killorn8921Jakub VoracekDylan Strome
Anthony Cirelli5046Vincent TrocheckNico Hischier
Ondrej Palat5539Andreas JohnssonJason Zucker
Kevin Shattenkirk9715Ryan EllisErik Karlsson
Tyler Johnson2437Josh BaileyJordan Eberle