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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Oddsmakers have the Lightning as the favorite to win the championship. They are a good bet to win the championship (21.2 percent chance). They are also a good bet to win the East at 3/1, 25%. Their sim chance is 27.5%. They are projected to finish with 108 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 108.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs, but they do not have a great chance of winning their division (29.7%). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the East.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NHL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
After 48 games, their expected win percentage is 60% based on the money line odds. At 29-15-4 they are in line with these expectations. Money line backers would be down 106 units. They are not good on puck lines (18-30) for a -956 loss. Their over-under record is 27-20-1. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Dallas Stars. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|1/27 DAL||65%||2-0-1, +14||1-1-1|
|1/29 LA||72%||3-0, +111||3-0|
|1/31 ANA||72%||2-1, +8||1-2|
|2/1 SJ||67%||2-1, +16||3-0|
|2/4 LV||56%||1-0-1, -14||0-2|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is +0.75 which ranks #3 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #5. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #2 ranked team among home teams. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +1.33 which ranks them #6 over this stretch, slightly worse than the season overall.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 48 Games||3.6 (#3)||11.2% (#1)||32.1 (#10)|
|Road||3.12 (#9)||11.1% (#2)||28.2 (#29)|
|Home||4.08 (#1)||11.3% (#5)||36 (#3)|
|Last 6 Games||3 (#13)||10.4% (#12)||28.8 (#24)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||2.85 (#9)||90.8% (#11)||31 (#13)|
|Road||2.79 (#6)||91.1% (#10||31.5 (#8)|
|Home||2.92 (#17)||90.5% (#20)||30.6 (#16)|
|Last 6 Games||1.67 (#3)||93.9% (#3)||27.2 (#3)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Andrei Vasilevskiy who is projected to be the #1 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Andrei Vasilevskiy||88||1||--||Braden Holtby|
|Nikita Kucherov||100||1||--||David Pastrnak|
|Steven Stamkos||100||5||Artemi Panarin||Taylor Hall|
|Brayden Point||99||10||Sidney Crosby||Patrice Bergeron|
|Victor Hedman||100||3||Roman Josi||Keith Yandle|
|Alex Killorn||89||21||Jakub Voracek||Dylan Strome|
|Anthony Cirelli||50||46||Vincent Trocheck||Nico Hischier|
|Ondrej Palat||55||39||Andreas Johnsson||Jason Zucker|
|Kevin Shattenkirk||97||15||Ryan Ellis||Erik Karlsson|
|Tyler Johnson||24||37||Josh Bailey||Jordan Eberle|