SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Oddsmakers have the Lightning as the favorite to win the championship. They win the championship in 25.2% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. They are also a good bet to win the East at 3/1, 25%. Their sim chance is 35.3%. The Lightning are averaging 110.6 points per sim which makes them a decent bet to go over 108.5. At -1000 the Lightning are a good value to make the playoffs with a 98.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 11/10, 47.6%. They win the division in 64.4% of simulations. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the East.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
They overachieved last season. Their game odds projected to 49.4 wins. Their 62-16-4 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +1714. They had a strong puck line record going 41-41 for (+1057 profit). They went over 44 times and came in under 35 times. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Florida Panthers. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|10/3 FLA||70%||4-0, +266||3-1|
|10/5 FLA||56%||4-0, +266||3-1|
|10/6 CAR||59%||3-0, +221||1-2|
|10/10 TOR||56%||3-1, +161||1-3|
|10/12 OTT||70%||3-1, -2||3-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is +1.01 (includes playoff games) which ranks #1 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. They are the #1 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 86 Games||3.8 (#1)||11.9% (#1)||31.8 (#14)|
|Road||3.67 (#1)||11.5% (#1)||32 (#10)|
|Home||3.93 (#2)||12.4% (#1)||31.7 (#18)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||2.79 (#10)||91.2% (#6)||31.9 (#20)|
|Road||3 (#12)||90.6% (#12||32.1 (#15)|
|Home||2.58 (#8)||91.9% (#4)||31.7 (#19)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Andrei Vasilevskiy who is projected to be the #1 Goalie. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Andrei Vasilevskiy||85||1||--||Tuukka Rask|
|Nikita Kucherov||100||1||--||Patrick Kane|
|Steven Stamkos||99||2||Connor McDavid||Nathan MacKinnon|
|Brayden Point||98||5||Sidney Crosby||Aleksander Barkov|
|Kevin Lynch||0||30||Ryan Nugent-Hopkins||Bo Horvat|
|Carter Verhaeghe||1||21||Jakub Voracek||Kyle Palmieri|
|Victor Hedman||95||7||Morgan Rielly||Tyson Barrie|
|Cory Conacher||0||25||Evgenii Dadonov||Anthony Mantha|
|Kevin Shattenkirk||43||15||Roman Josi||Jake Muzzin|
|Yanni Gourde||72||32||Ryan Dzingel||Erik Haula|