NHL Outlook: Bet on the Vegas Golden Knights to Have Under 102.5 Points...Projected to Finish Ahead of Jets

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 7/1, 12.5% (#2). Their 7.6% chance is #3 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the West 17% of the time and are not a good value at 3/1, 25%. The Golden Knights are averaging 99.9 points per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 102.5. At -700 the Golden Knights are a good value to make the playoffs with a 91.2% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/1, 50%. They win the division in 31.8% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 43-32-7 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 46.5-35.5. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1070) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good on puck lines going 32-50 (-1008 loss). They went over 37 times and came in under 41 times. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the San Jose Sharks. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
10/2 SJ57%5-3-3, -1098-3
10/4 SJ44%5-3-3, -1098-3
10/8 BOS49%0-1-1, -2000-2
10/10 ARI59%2-2, -442-2
10/12 CGY55%2-2, -602-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be better. Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is +0.22 (includes playoff games) which ranks #12 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #16. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #18 in road games.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 89 Games3.04 (#13)8.9% (#21)34.4 (#1)
Road2.84 (#15)8.7% (#21)32.7 (#6)
Home3.25 (#11)9% (#24)36 (#2)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.82 (#11)90.4% (#18)29.5 (#6)
Road3.27 (#20)89.3% (#2330.4 (#6)
Home2.36 (#3)91.7% (#5)28.6 (#7)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Marc-Andre Fleury who is projected to be the #6 Goalie. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Marc-Andre Fleury856Braden HoltbyDavid Rittich
Mark Stone996Mitch MarnerAlexander Radulov
Paul Stastny5720Evgeny KuznetsovRyan O'Reilly
Jonathan Marchessault9315Mike HoffmanJeff Skinner
Reilly Smith8122Carter VerhaegheEvgenii Dadonov
Brandon Pirri1523Zach PariseMax Pacioretty
Max Pacioretty8224Brandon PirriJames van Riemsdyk
William Karlsson8833David KrejciJordan Staal
Alex Tuch7130Ondrej KaseNick Shore
Cody Glass1047Anthony AngelloRyan Poehling