SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their odds to win it all are 7/1, 12.5% (#2). Their 7.6% chance is #3 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the West 17% of the time and are not a good value at 3/1, 25%. The Golden Knights are averaging 99.9 points per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 102.5. At -700 the Golden Knights are a good value to make the playoffs with a 91.2% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/1, 50%. They win the division in 31.8% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the West.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Their 43-32-7 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 46.5-35.5. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1070) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good on puck lines going 32-50 (-1008 loss). They went over 37 times and came in under 41 times. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the San Jose Sharks. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|10/2 SJ||57%||5-3-3, -109||8-3|
|10/4 SJ||44%||5-3-3, -109||8-3|
|10/8 BOS||49%||0-1-1, -200||0-2|
|10/10 ARI||59%||2-2, -44||2-2|
|10/12 CGY||55%||2-2, -60||2-2|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be better. Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is +0.22 (includes playoff games) which ranks #12 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #16. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #18 in road games.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 89 Games||3.04 (#13)||8.9% (#21)||34.4 (#1)|
|Road||2.84 (#15)||8.7% (#21)||32.7 (#6)|
|Home||3.25 (#11)||9% (#24)||36 (#2)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||2.82 (#11)||90.4% (#18)||29.5 (#6)|
|Road||3.27 (#20)||89.3% (#23||30.4 (#6)|
|Home||2.36 (#3)||91.7% (#5)||28.6 (#7)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Marc-Andre Fleury who is projected to be the #6 Goalie. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Marc-Andre Fleury||85||6||Braden Holtby||David Rittich|
|Mark Stone||99||6||Mitch Marner||Alexander Radulov|
|Paul Stastny||57||20||Evgeny Kuznetsov||Ryan O'Reilly|
|Jonathan Marchessault||93||15||Mike Hoffman||Jeff Skinner|
|Reilly Smith||81||22||Carter Verhaeghe||Evgenii Dadonov|
|Brandon Pirri||15||23||Zach Parise||Max Pacioretty|
|Max Pacioretty||82||24||Brandon Pirri||James van Riemsdyk|
|William Karlsson||88||33||David Krejci||Jordan Staal|
|Alex Tuch||71||30||Ondrej Kase||Nick Shore|
|Cody Glass||10||47||Anthony Angello||Ryan Poehling|