NHL Outlook: The Anaheim Ducks are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Kings and Behind the Sharks in the West

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Ducks are off the betting board and have no odds to win the Stanley Cup. They are projected to finish with 77 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 82.5. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +300 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 0% at 80/1, 1.2%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 69 games, their expected win percentage is 44% based on the money line odds. At 28-32-9 they are in line with these expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down quite a bit (656 units). They are not good on puck lines (37-32) for a -621 loss. Their over-under record is 37-31-1. Their next game vs the Senators should be close. The Ducks are winning 51 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/10 OTT51%1-1-1, -1020-3
3/11 STL37%2-3, -142-3
3/14 LA47%3-3-1, -1583-3-1
3/15 MON42%1-1-1, -821-2
3/18 BOS26%0-3, -3001-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.64 which ranks #29 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #27. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #25 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #30 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.57 (#23 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 69 Games2.54 (#28)8.5% (#27)29.9 (#26)
Road2.51 (#23)8.4% (#22)29.8 (#21)
Home2.56 (#29)8.5% (#25)30 (#26)
Last 7 Games2.71 (#18)9.5% (#11)28.4 (#28)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.17 (#25)90% (#21)31.9 (#20)
Road3.37 (#25)89.8% (#2133 (#22)
Home2.97 (#17)90.3% (#17)30.7 (#18)
Last 7 Games3.29 (#22)90.1% (#20)33.1 (#28)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by John Gibson who is projected to be the #29 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
John Gibson6729Martin JonesCraig Anderson
Ryan Getzlaf5830David KrejciNazem Kadri
Rickard Rakell4926Zach HymanZach Parise
Jakob Silfverberg5431Elias LindholmAlex Killorn
Ryan Miller634Thomas GreissAaron Dell
Adam Henrique3237Eric StaalSean Monahan
Cam Fowler5826Kevin ShattenkirkDrew Doughty
Sonny Milano654Kasperi KapanenBrendan Lemieux
Sam Steel1675Brandon SutterGabriel Vilardi
Hampus Lindholm2971Stephen JohnsMatt Dumba