NHL Outlook: The Boston Bruins are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Penguins and Behind the Capitals in the East

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 3 teams who have 10/1, 9.1% odds to win the Stanley Cup. Their 6.9% chance is #5 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the East 11.9% of the time and are not a good value at 5/1, 16.7%. They are projected to finish with 105 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 100.5. Their playoff chances stand at 92% (22.7% to win the division). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 9 games, their expected win percentage is 55% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 6-1-2 record. Money line bettors backing them would be up 130 units on the season. They are 5-4 on puck line bets for a 68 profit. Their over-under record is 5-4. Based on last season's game odds they 'should have had' 46.4 wins. Their 49-24-9 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. They performed solidly on the money line turning a +164 profit (100 units per). They went 40-42 on puck lines (-69 loss). More of their games came in under (44) than went over (35). Their next game vs the Blues should be close. The Bruins are winning 52 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
10/26 STL52%4-3-2, -1845-3-1
10/27 NYR55%1-1-1, -1722-1
10/29 SJ61%2-0, +2221-1
11/2 OTT75%4-0, +1801-3
11/4 PIT55%1-2, -1001-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.78 which ranks #6 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #3. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #12 in road games. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.67 which ranks them #8 over this stretch, slightly worse than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 9 Games2.89 (#18)8.7% (#19)33.2 (#9)
Road2.4 (#20)7.1% (#23)33.6 (#7)
Home3.5 (#10)10.7% (#11)32.8 (#15)
Last 6 Games3.17 (#13)8.7% (#15)36.3 (#2)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.11 (#2)93.5% (#2)32.4 (#22)
Road2.4 (#5)92.6% (#532.6 (#17)
Home1.75 (#4)94.6% (#4)32.2 (#20)
Last 6 Games2.5 (#6)92.3% (#7)32.3 (#18)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Tuukka Rask who is projected to be the #3 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Tuukka Rask883Philipp GrubauerPekka Rinne
David Pastrnak1002Nikita KucherovPatrick Kane
Brad Marchand1002Leon DraisaitlSteven Stamkos
Patrice Bergeron1009Aleksander BarkovJohn Tavares
Torey Krug1009Mark GiordanoErik Karlsson
David Krejci6337Brayden SchennKevin Hayes
Jaroslav Halak4436Ilya SamsonovJake Allen
Jake DeBrusk6150Jaden SchwartzOndrej Palat
Charlie Coyle1286Nick BjugstadNolan Patrick
Charlie McAvoy8367Brett PesceColton Parayko