NHL Outlook: The Calgary Flames are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Wild and Behind the Canucks in the West

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 30/1, 3.2% (#13). They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 1.1% chance is #17 in the league. In simulations, they win the West 4% of the time and are not a good value at 15/1, 6.2%. They are projected to finish with 92 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 96.5. Their playoff chances stand at 65.5% (2.8% to win the division). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 36.6-33.4. At 36-27-7 they are in line with these expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down quite a bit (326 units). They are not good on puck lines (30-40) for a -1208 loss. Their over-under record is 34-32 with 4 pushes. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the New York Islanders. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/12 NYI54%2-0, +1630-1-1
3/14 WPG48%2-1-1, +151-3
3/16 NYR37%3-0, +1791-1-1
3/17 NYI44%2-0, +1630-1-1
3/19 NJ57%3-0, +1342-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.14 which ranks #22 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #16. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #14 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #27 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.57 (#6 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 70 Games2.91 (#20)9.2% (#20)31.6 (#15)
Road2.76 (#20)8.8% (#21)31.2 (#14)
Home3.09 (#18)9.6% (#19)32 (#18)
Last 7 Games3.29 (#4)10.8% (#6)30.3 (#19)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.06 (#16)90.6% (#14)32.4 (#24)
Road2.78 (#6)91.7% (#333.6 (#27)
Home3.36 (#29)89.2% (#31)31.2 (#21)
Last 7 Games2.71 (#14)91.6% (#11)32.1 (#20)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by David Rittich who is projected to be the #22 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
David Rittich8522Mike SmithMacKenzie Blackwood
Matthew Tkachuk9917Tyler ToffoliT.J. Oshie
Johnny Gaudreau9823Tomas TatarJakub Vrana
Elias Lindholm9830Sam ReinhartJakob Silfverberg
Sean Monahan9138Adam HenriqueWilliam Karlsson
Mark Giordano9519Ryan SuterAaron Ekblad
Mikael Backlund4753Charlie CoyleRobert Thomas
Erik Gustafsson7443Shayne GostisbehereJacob Trouba
Cam Talbot1857Charlie LindgrenCory Schneider
Andrew Mangiapane1882Colin BlackwellMilan Lucic