SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their odds to win it all are 30/1, 3.2% (#13). They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 1.1% chance is #17 in the league. In simulations, they win the West 4% of the time and are not a good value at 15/1, 6.2%. They are projected to finish with 92 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 96.5. Their playoff chances stand at 65.5% (2.8% to win the division). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the West.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 36.6-33.4. At 36-27-7 they are in line with these expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down quite a bit (326 units). They are not good on puck lines (30-40) for a -1208 loss. Their over-under record is 34-32 with 4 pushes. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the New York Islanders. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|3/12 NYI||54%||2-0, +163||0-1-1|
|3/14 WPG||48%||2-1-1, +15||1-3|
|3/16 NYR||37%||3-0, +179||1-1-1|
|3/17 NYI||44%||2-0, +163||0-1-1|
|3/19 NJ||57%||3-0, +134||2-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.14 which ranks #22 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #16. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #14 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #27 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.57 (#6 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 70 Games||2.91 (#20)||9.2% (#20)||31.6 (#15)|
|Road||2.76 (#20)||8.8% (#21)||31.2 (#14)|
|Home||3.09 (#18)||9.6% (#19)||32 (#18)|
|Last 7 Games||3.29 (#4)||10.8% (#6)||30.3 (#19)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||3.06 (#16)||90.6% (#14)||32.4 (#24)|
|Road||2.78 (#6)||91.7% (#3||33.6 (#27)|
|Home||3.36 (#29)||89.2% (#31)||31.2 (#21)|
|Last 7 Games||2.71 (#14)||91.6% (#11)||32.1 (#20)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by David Rittich who is projected to be the #22 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|David Rittich||85||22||Mike Smith||MacKenzie Blackwood|
|Matthew Tkachuk||99||17||Tyler Toffoli||T.J. Oshie|
|Johnny Gaudreau||98||23||Tomas Tatar||Jakub Vrana|
|Elias Lindholm||98||30||Sam Reinhart||Jakob Silfverberg|
|Sean Monahan||91||38||Adam Henrique||William Karlsson|
|Mark Giordano||95||19||Ryan Suter||Aaron Ekblad|
|Mikael Backlund||47||53||Charlie Coyle||Robert Thomas|
|Erik Gustafsson||74||43||Shayne Gostisbehere||Jacob Trouba|
|Cam Talbot||18||57||Charlie Lindgren||Cory Schneider|
|Andrew Mangiapane||18||82||Colin Blackwell||Milan Lucic|