NHL Outlook: The Canadiens (31-30-9) are Major Disappointments and Are Projected to Win 37 Games

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 35.3-34.7. At 31-30-9 they are short of expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (863 units). They are not good on puck lines (31-39) for a -1016 loss. Their under-over record is 34-32 with 4 pushes. Based on computer simulations they only have a 45% chance to beat the Predators in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/10 NSH45%0-2, -2000-2
3/12 BUF60%2-1-3, -2684-2
3/15 ANA58%2-1, +81-2
3/17 LA61%2-1, +210-3
3/19 SJ56%0-3, -3001-2

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NHL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Canadiens are not contenders to win the championship at 1000/1, 0.1%. They do not win the championship in any simulations. They are not a good value to win the East either at 500/1, 0.2%. They are projected to finish with 84 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 89.5. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the East.

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is -0.14 which ranks #22 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #24. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #8 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #29 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -1 (#26 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 70 Games2.94 (#18)8.6% (#24)34.1 (#2)
Road3.15 (#9)9.6% (#17)32.9 (#2)
Home2.75 (#26)7.8% (#29)35.3 (#2)
Last 6 Games2.67 (#21)7.8% (#23)34.3 (#4)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.09 (#19)90% (#20)31 (#13)
Road3.03 (#14)90.6% (#1232.2 (#17)
Home3.14 (#26)89.5% (#28)29.8 (#14)
Last 6 Games3.67 (#28)87.5% (#28)29.3 (#10)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Carey Price who is projected to be the #16 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Carey Price8616Darcy KuemperAlex Stalock
Tomas Tatar9322Anders LeeJohnny Gaudreau
Max Domi7835Logan CoutureEric Staal
Brendan Gallagher8633Alex KillornKevin Fiala
Phillip Danault4843Pierre-Luc DuboisRoope Hintz
Shea Weber9723Tyson BarrieJared Spurgeon
Jeff Petry9337Mattias EkholmZach Werenski
Jonathan Drouin3952Zach SanfordKasperi Kapanen
Nick Suzuki4060Jordan StaalBarclay Goodrow
Joel Armia3167Jesper FastTyler Bozak