REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 35.3-34.7. At 31-30-9 they are short of expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (863 units). They are not good on puck lines (31-39) for a -1016 loss. Their under-over record is 34-32 with 4 pushes. Based on computer simulations they only have a 45% chance to beat the Predators in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|3/10 NSH||45%||0-2, -200||0-2|
|3/12 BUF||60%||2-1-3, -268||4-2|
|3/15 ANA||58%||2-1, +8||1-2|
|3/17 LA||61%||2-1, +21||0-3|
|3/19 SJ||56%||0-3, -300||1-2|
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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
The Canadiens are not contenders to win the championship at 1000/1, 0.1%. They do not win the championship in any simulations. They are not a good value to win the East either at 500/1, 0.2%. They are projected to finish with 84 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 89.5. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the East.
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is -0.14 which ranks #22 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #24. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #8 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #29 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -1 (#26 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 70 Games||2.94 (#18)||8.6% (#24)||34.1 (#2)|
|Road||3.15 (#9)||9.6% (#17)||32.9 (#2)|
|Home||2.75 (#26)||7.8% (#29)||35.3 (#2)|
|Last 6 Games||2.67 (#21)||7.8% (#23)||34.3 (#4)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||3.09 (#19)||90% (#20)||31 (#13)|
|Road||3.03 (#14)||90.6% (#12||32.2 (#17)|
|Home||3.14 (#26)||89.5% (#28)||29.8 (#14)|
|Last 6 Games||3.67 (#28)||87.5% (#28)||29.3 (#10)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Carey Price who is projected to be the #16 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Carey Price||86||16||Darcy Kuemper||Alex Stalock|
|Tomas Tatar||93||22||Anders Lee||Johnny Gaudreau|
|Max Domi||78||35||Logan Couture||Eric Staal|
|Brendan Gallagher||86||33||Alex Killorn||Kevin Fiala|
|Phillip Danault||48||43||Pierre-Luc Dubois||Roope Hintz|
|Shea Weber||97||23||Tyson Barrie||Jared Spurgeon|
|Jeff Petry||93||37||Mattias Ekholm||Zach Werenski|
|Jonathan Drouin||39||52||Zach Sanford||Kasperi Kapanen|
|Nick Suzuki||40||60||Jordan Staal||Barclay Goodrow|
|Joel Armia||31||67||Jesper Fast||Tyler Bozak|