SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their odds to win it all are 80/1, 1.2% (#21). They win the championship in less than 0.1% of simulations. In simulations, they win the East 0.3% of the time and are not a good value at 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to finish with 93 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 84.5. Their playoff chances stand at 26.3% (0% to win the division). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the East.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
After 70 games, their expected win percentage is 48% based on the money line odds. At 33-22-15 they are in line with these expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (259 units). They are not good on puck lines (39-31) for a -455 loss. Their under-over record is 42-27-1. Based on computer simulations they only have a 44% chance to beat the Penguins in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|3/12 PIT||44%||2-4-1, -326||3-4|
|3/14 NSH||48%||2-0-1, +112||3-0|
|3/16 BOS||32%||5-4-2, +14||3-8|
|3/19 WAS||34%||5-1-1, +443||1-6|
|3/21 TOR||40%||2-3, -54||1-2-2|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.04 which ranks #20 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #13. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #12 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #22 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -1.17 (#28 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 70 Games||2.57 (#27)||7.9% (#29)||32.4 (#8)|
|Road||2.53 (#22)||7.8% (#26)||32.5 (#3)|
|Home||2.61 (#28)||8.1% (#28)||32.3 (#15)|
|Last 6 Games||2.33 (#25)||7.9% (#21)||29.5 (#23)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||2.61 (#3)||91.2% (#6)||29.9 (#7)|
|Road||2.97 (#10)||90.5% (#14||31.4 (#8)|
|Home||2.28 (#3)||92% (#4)||28.4 (#3)|
|Last 6 Games||3.5 (#25)||89.1% (#24)||32.2 (#21)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Joonas Korpisalo who is projected to be the #27 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Joonas Korpisalo||68||27||Connor Hellebuyck||Martin Jones|
|Pierre-Luc Dubois||88||42||Vincent Trocheck||Phillip Danault|
|Cam Atkinson||68||38||Nikolaj Ehlers||Antoine Roussel|
|Gustav Nyquist||54||52||Clayton Keller||Phil Kessel|
|Zach Werenski||99||38||Jeff Petry||Darnell Nurse|
|Nick Foligno||20||69||Evan Rodrigues||Marcus Foligno|
|Stefan Matteau||1||89||Filip Zadina||Austin Watson|
|Elvis Merzlikins||60||60||Chris Driedger||Cal Petersen|
|Emil Bemstrom||5||92||Drake Caggiula||Alex Tuch|
|Boone Jenner||12||104||Alex True||Cody Eakin|