NHL Outlook: The Flyers are A Great Team in Puck Line Bets

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 68 games, their expected win percentage is 50% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 41-20-7 record. If you bet on them to win every game you would be up big (+1023 units). They are one of the best teams against the spread (44-24) for a 1620 profit. Their over-under record is 36-30 with 2 pushes. Their next game vs the Bruins should be close. The Flyers are winning 49 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/10 BOS49%4-1, +4942-3
3/12 TB36%0-3-2, -5004-1
3/14 MIN60%2-1, +1332-1
3/15 EDM46%1-2, -1382-1
3/17 STL50%1-2, -362-1

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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 4 teams who have 10/1, 9.1% odds to win the Stanley Cup. They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 6.8% chance is #6 in the league. In simulations, they win the East 12% of the time and are not a good value at 5/1, 16.7%. They are projected to finish with 106 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 90.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs. Their chances of winning their division stand at 35.1%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the East.

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their average goal differential is +0.59 which ranks #4 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #1 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #23 in road games. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +2.67 which ranks them #1 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 68 Games3.34 (#5)10.7% (#5)31.3 (#16)
Road3.06 (#13)10.1% (#10)30.1 (#18)
Home3.62 (#4)11.1% (#4)32.5 (#13)
Last 6 Games4.33 (#1)14.6% (#1)29.7 (#21)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.75 (#7)90.4% (#16)28.6 (#1)
Road3.53 (#29)87.6% (#3128.5 (#2)
Home1.97 (#1)93.1% (#1)28.7 (#5)
Last 6 Games1.67 (#3)94.3% (#3)29 (#6)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Carter Hart who is projected to be the #10 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Carter Hart8510Sergei BobrovskyAndrei Vasilevskiy
Sean Couturier9814Brayden PointJohn Tavares
Claude Giroux975Jonathan HuberdeauGabriel Landeskog
Travis Konecny9211Bryan RustIlya Kovalchuk
Jakub Voracek9115Brock BoeserTyler Toffoli
Kevin Hayes5033Matt DucheneLogan Couture
Derek Grant351Adam GaudetteCharlie Coyle
Scott Laughton845Richard PanikAnthony Duclair
Ivan Provorov9535Neal PionkMattias Ekholm
Brian Elliott1741Juuse SarosMalcolm Subban