SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their odds to win it all are 25/1, 3.8% (#12). They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 1.1% chance is #16 in the league. In simulations, they win the West 3.9% of the time and are not a good value at 12/1, 7.7%. They are projected to finish with 91 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their playoff chances stand at 50.2% (0% to win the division). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the West.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 37.4-30.6. At 34-26-8 they are in line with these expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (595 units). They are not good on puck lines (23-45) for a -1811 loss. Their over-under record is 36-31-1. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Montreal Canadiens. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|3/10 MON||55%||2-0, +177||0-2|
|3/12 TOR||44%||2-1, +93||1-2|
|3/14 CLB||52%||1-1-1, -137||3-0|
|3/15 MIN||50%||6-1, +260||2-4-1|
|3/19 COL||35%||2-4, -225||1-5|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.06 which ranks #21 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #17. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #10 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #26 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.43 which ranks them #20 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 68 Games||3.06 (#16)||9.2% (#19)||33.1 (#4)|
|Road||3.24 (#4)||10.1% (#11)||32.2 (#7)|
|Home||2.89 (#23)||8.5% (#26)||34 (#5)|
|Last 7 Games||2.29 (#26)||7.1% (#27)||32.3 (#8)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||3.12 (#22)||90% (#22)||31.2 (#16)|
|Road||3.15 (#18)||90.4% (#16||32.7 (#20)|
|Home||3.09 (#22)||89.6% (#27)||29.7 (#10)|
|Last 7 Games||2.71 (#14)||92.2% (#8)||34.7 (#30)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Pekka Rinne who is projected to be the #12 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Pekka Rinne||75||12||Andrei Vasilevskiy||Frederik Andersen|
|Roman Josi||100||2||John Carlson||Anthony DeAngelo|
|Filip Forsberg||97||20||Victor Olofsson||Anders Lee|
|Matt Duchene||81||32||Nazem Kadri||Kevin Hayes|
|Viktor Arvidsson||71||41||Patric Hornqvist||Mikael Granlund|
|Ryan Ellis||98||14||John Klingberg||Morgan Rielly|
|Mikael Granlund||35||42||Viktor Arvidsson||Jake DeBrusk|
|Ryan Johansen||58||47||Anthony Cirelli||Dylan Strome|
|Nick Bonino||21||57||Dylan Larkin||Nick Schmaltz|
|Mattias Ekholm||92||36||Ivan Provorov||Jeff Petry|