NHL Outlook: The Nashville Predators are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Sharks and Behind the Jets in the West

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 3 teams who have 16/1, 5.9% odds to win the Stanley Cup. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 2% chance is #12 in the league. In simulations, they win the West 6.2% of the time and are not a good value at 7/1, 12.5%. They are projected to finish with 100 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their playoff chances stand at 92.1% (11.8% to win the division). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 5 games, their expected win percentage is 61% based on the money line odds. At 3-2 they are in line with these expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down 8 units. They are 2-3 on puck line bets for a 28 profit. Their over-under record is 5-0. They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 47-29-6 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -325 units. They were not good on puck lines going 31-51 (-1619 loss). More of their games came in under (46) than went over (33). Based on computer simulations they only have a 44% chance to beat the Golden Knights in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
10/15 LV44%2-1, +891-2
10/17 ARI58%1-2, -1651-2
10/19 FLA59%1-1, -200-1-1
10/22 ANA73%1-1-1, -1621-2
10/24 MIN68%5-0, +3042-2-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is +0.22 (includes playoff games) which ranks #14 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #8. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #9 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #13 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 5 games is 0 which ranks them #0 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 93 Games2.91 (#19)8.8% (#23)33 (#7)
Road2.82 (#17)8.9% (#20)31.9 (#10)
Home3 (#20)8.8% (#28)34 (#6)
Last 5 Games0 (#0)0% (#0)0 (#0)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.7 (#5)91.1% (#8)30.2 (#9)
Road2.84 (#8)91.3% (#732.6 (#20)
Home2.56 (#7)90.8% (#16)27.9 (#2)
Last 5 Games0 (#0)0% (#0)0 (#0)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Pekka Rinne who is projected to be the #5 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Pekka Rinne885Marc-Andre FleuryTuukka Rask
Matt Duchene9912Patrice BergeronMax Domi
Filip Forsberg10015Evgenii DadonovJeff Skinner
Viktor Arvidsson9812Alexander RadulovDavid Perron
Ryan Johansen8026Ryan Nugent-HopkinsTomas Hertl
Roman Josi1007Morgan RiellyVictor Hedman
Mikael Granlund6224Cam AtkinsonBrendan Gallagher
Mattias Ekholm9320Darnell NurseThomas Chabot
Ryan Ellis8634Jared SpurgeonShea Weber
Juuse Saros3444Laurent BrossoitKeith Kinkaid