NHL Outlook: The New Jersey Devils are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Senators and Behind the Sabres in the East

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Devils are off the betting board and have no odds to win the Stanley Cup. They are projected to finish with 80 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 90.5. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a -110 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 0.5% at 6/1, 14.3%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 68 games, their expected win percentage is 43% based on the money line odds. At 28-28-12 they are in line with these expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (283 units). They are not good on puck lines (35-33) for a -496 loss. Their over-under record is 34-34. Based on computer simulations they only have a 38% chance to beat the Penguins in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/10 PIT38%4-2, +3682-2-2
3/12 CAR38%3-3, +1012-4
3/14 FLA28%2-2-1, -504-1
3/15 TB28%1-3-1, -2173-2
3/17 TOR25%0-4-1, -5004-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.51 which ranks #27 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #25. They are the #26 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #25 ranked team among home teams. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.71 (#5 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 68 Games2.69 (#25)8.7% (#23)30.8 (#21)
Road2.43 (#25)7.6% (#27)31.8 (#11)
Home2.97 (#21)10% (#15)29.8 (#27)
Last 7 Games2.86 (#11)9.5% (#13)30 (#20)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.21 (#28)90.2% (#18)32.6 (#26)
Road3.31 (#23)90.4% (#1534.5 (#29)
Home3.09 (#23)89.9% (#23)30.6 (#17)
Last 7 Games2.14 (#4)93.4% (#4)32.6 (#24)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by MacKenzie Blackwood who is projected to be the #23 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
MacKenzie Blackwood7123David RittichTristan Jarry
Kyle Palmieri8425Blake WheelerOndrej Kase
Nikita Gusev4444Jake DeBruskJake Virtanen
Nico Hischier5645Roope HintzAnthony Cirelli
Jesper Bratt2050Anthony BeauvillierZach Sanford
Damon Severson5146Colton ParaykoRasmus Ristolainen
Pavel Zacha670Chris TierneyAlex Kerfoot
Travis Zajac479Anton BlidhLucas Wallmark
Cory Schneider1258Cam TalbotChris Driedger
Miles Wood473Ilya MikheyevSean Kuraly