NHL Outlook: The New York Islanders are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Blue Jackets and Behind the Panthers in the East

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 40/1, 2.4% (#15). They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 0.1% chance is #21 in the league. In simulations, they win the East 0.4% of the time and are not a good value at 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 95 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 91.5. Their playoff chances stand at 54% (0.1% to win the division). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 34.4-32.6. At 35-23-9 they are in line with these expectations. Money line backers would be down 86 units. They are not good on puck lines (33-34) for a -189 loss. Their under-over record is 37-26 with 4 pushes. In their next game vs the Canucks they are only winning 34% of the simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/10 VAN34%2-0-1, +372-1
3/12 CGY46%0-2, -2000-1-1
3/13 EDM43%1-1-1, -1533-0
3/15 PIT35%8-1-2, +7206-5
3/17 CGY56%0-2, -2000-1-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.01 which ranks #19 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #11. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #11 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #21 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -2 (#31 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 67 Games2.76 (#22)9.4% (#17)29.4 (#28)
Road2.28 (#28)8.1% (#24)28 (#29)
Home3.2 (#14)10.5% (#9)30.6 (#24)
Last 6 Games2 (#27)6.9% (#28)29.2 (#27)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.78 (#8)91.1% (#8)31.1 (#15)
Road2.69 (#3)91.6% (#532 (#15)
Home2.86 (#15)90.6% (#14)30.3 (#16)
Last 6 Games4 (#30)86.2% (#31)29 (#6)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Semyon Varlamov who is projected to be the #14 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Semyon Varlamov7914Frederik AndersenDarcy Kuemper
Mathew Barzal9716John TavaresEvgeny Kuznetsov
Jean-Gabriel Pageau8322Ryan O'ReillyTyler Seguin
Brock Nelson7826Brayden SchennAnze Kopitar
Anders Lee6021Filip ForsbergTomas Tatar
Jordan Eberle4827Ondrej KaseJustin Williams
Thomas Greiss3833Jonathan BernierRyan Miller
Josh Bailey4239Vladislav NamestnikovPatric Hornqvist
Ryan Pulock8428Drew DoughtySami Vatanen
Anthony Beauvillier3649Jared McCannJesper Bratt