SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
There are 4 teams who have 10/1, 9.1% odds to win the Stanley Cup. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 4.7% chance is #8 in the league. In simulations, they win the East 8.3% of the time and are not a good value at 5/1, 16.7%. They are projected to finish with 109 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs. Their chances of winning their division stand at 41%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the East.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NHL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 31.4-26.6. At 37-15-6 they ahead of expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be up big (+792 units). They are 27-31 against the puck line for a -104 loss. Their under-over record is 29-27 with 2 pushes. Their next game vs the Maple Leafs should be close. The Penguins are winning 49 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|2/20 TOR||49%||3-2, +78||2-3|
|2/22 BUF||69%||1-1-2, -238||2-2|
|2/23 WAS||39%||4-1, +286||3-2|
|2/26 LA||70%||2-1, -1||3-0|
|2/28 ANA||66%||2-1, +41||1-1-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.69 which ranks #4 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #3. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #8 in road games. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +1.33 which ranks them #3 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 58 Games||3.33 (#6)||10.4% (#7)||31.9 (#13)|
|Road||3.15 (#8)||10.3% (#8)||30.6 (#16)|
|Home||3.48 (#6)||10.6% (#12)||33 (#12)|
|Last 6 Games||3.33 (#7)||11.4% (#5)||29.3 (#27)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||2.64 (#5)||91.3% (#7)||30.2 (#8)|
|Road||3 (#11)||89.6% (#24||28.7 (#2)|
|Home||2.32 (#5)||92.6% (#3)||31.4 (#21)|
|Last 6 Games||2 (#4)||94% (#4)||33.5 (#23)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Tristan Jarry who is projected to be the #17 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Tristan Jarry||81||17||Frederik Andersen||Devan Dubnyk|
|Sidney Crosby||100||4||Nathan MacKinnon||Mika Zibanejad|
|Evgeni Malkin||99||6||Mika Zibanejad||Jack Eichel|
|Bryan Rust||95||8||Teuvo Teravainen||T.J. Oshie|
|Matt Murray||75||32||Jonathan Bernier||Pavel Francouz|
|Kris Letang||100||3||Roman Josi||Victor Hedman|
|Jason Zucker||84||17||Kyle Connor||Taylor Hall|
|Patric Hornqvist||50||29||Tyler Toffoli||Mikko Rantanen|
|Jared McCann||31||53||Tyler Johnson||Joe Pavelski|
|Anthony Angello||0||49||Oliver Bjorkstrand||Phil Kessel|