NHL Outlook: The Pittsburgh Penguins are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Hurricanes and Behind the Bruins in the East

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 4 teams who have 10/1, 9.1% odds to win the Stanley Cup. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 4.7% chance is #8 in the league. In simulations, they win the East 8.3% of the time and are not a good value at 5/1, 16.7%. They are projected to finish with 109 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs. Their chances of winning their division stand at 41%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 31.4-26.6. At 37-15-6 they ahead of expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be up big (+792 units). They are 27-31 against the puck line for a -104 loss. Their under-over record is 29-27 with 2 pushes. Their next game vs the Maple Leafs should be close. The Penguins are winning 49 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
2/20 TOR49%3-2, +782-3
2/22 BUF69%1-1-2, -2382-2
2/23 WAS39%4-1, +2863-2
2/26 LA70%2-1, -13-0
2/28 ANA66%2-1, +411-1-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.69 which ranks #4 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #3. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #8 in road games. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +1.33 which ranks them #3 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 58 Games3.33 (#6)10.4% (#7)31.9 (#13)
Road3.15 (#8)10.3% (#8)30.6 (#16)
Home3.48 (#6)10.6% (#12)33 (#12)
Last 6 Games3.33 (#7)11.4% (#5)29.3 (#27)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.64 (#5)91.3% (#7)30.2 (#8)
Road3 (#11)89.6% (#2428.7 (#2)
Home2.32 (#5)92.6% (#3)31.4 (#21)
Last 6 Games2 (#4)94% (#4)33.5 (#23)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Tristan Jarry who is projected to be the #17 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Tristan Jarry8117Frederik AndersenDevan Dubnyk
Sidney Crosby1004Nathan MacKinnonMika Zibanejad
Evgeni Malkin996Mika ZibanejadJack Eichel
Bryan Rust958Teuvo TeravainenT.J. Oshie
Matt Murray7532Jonathan BernierPavel Francouz
Kris Letang1003Roman JosiVictor Hedman
Jason Zucker8417Kyle ConnorTaylor Hall
Patric Hornqvist5029Tyler ToffoliMikko Rantanen
Jared McCann3153Tyler JohnsonJoe Pavelski
Anthony Angello049Oliver BjorkstrandPhil Kessel