NHL Outlook: The San Jose Sharks are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Ducks and Behind the Blackhawks in the West

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Sharks are off the betting board and have no odds to win the Stanley Cup. They are projected to finish with 75 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 94.5. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a -200 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 51.3% at 5/1, 16.7%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 32.4-36.6. They are coming up short of expectations at 29-35-5. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down quite a bit (978 units). They are not good on puck lines (33-36) for a -466 loss. Their under-over record is 38-28 with 3 pushes. Based on computer simulations they only have a 45% chance to beat the Blackhawks in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/11 CHI45%4-1, +1453-1-1
3/13 STL24%4-7, -3735-6
3/14 DAL41%2-2, -441-3
3/17 COL29%7-4-1, +437-4-1
3/19 MON44%3-0, +2571-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.64 which ranks #29 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #28. They are the #29 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #28 ranked team among home teams. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.29 (#12 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 69 Games2.54 (#28)8.6% (#25)29.4 (#27)
Road2.27 (#30)7.8% (#25)29 (#26)
Home2.78 (#25)9.3% (#20)29.8 (#28)
Last 7 Games2.71 (#18)8.9% (#19)30.4 (#18)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.17 (#25)89.5% (#30)30.3 (#10)
Road3.3 (#21)89.6% (#2331.8 (#12)
Home3.06 (#21)89.5% (#29)29 (#6)
Last 7 Games2.43 (#8)91.4% (#15)28.1 (#3)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Martin Jones who is projected to be the #28 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Martin Jones5228Joonas KorpisaloJohn Gibson
Evander Kane9512Nick RitchieTaylor Hall
Logan Couture8234Kevin HayesMax Domi
Brent Burns10011Keith YandleAlexander Edler
Timo Meier8131Dominik KubalikAlex DeBrincat
Aaron Dell1935Ryan MillerJames Reimer
Kevin Labanc3473Matt CalvertJason Spezza
Joe Thornton1072Alex KerfootFilip Chytil
Stefan Noesen0101Leo KomarovJulien Gauthier
Alex True2103Troy BrouwerBoone Jenner