NHL Outlook: The St. Louis Blues are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Jets and Behind the Avalanche in the West

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 4 teams who have 12/1, 7.7% odds to win the Stanley Cup. They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 4.1% chance is #7 in the league. In simulations, they win the West 12.7% of the time and are not a good value at 6/1, 14.3%. They are projected to finish with 101 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 96.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs, but they do not have a great chance of winning their division (24.2%). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 17.3-15.7. They are ahead of expectations with their 18-8-6 record. If you bet on them to win every game you would be up big (+332 units). They are 16-17 against the puck line for a -52 loss. Their under-over record is 18-15. They were expected to win 52% of their games last season so their 45-28-9 met expectations. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +382. They were not good on puck lines going 40-42 (-777 loss). More of their games came in under (44) than went over (34). They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Chicago Blackhawks. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
12/14 CHI65%2-1-3, -2574-2
12/16 COL48%5-0, +4521-4
12/18 EDM63%3-0-1, +1972-2
12/21 SJ47%5-2-2, +634-5
12/23 LA62%2-2, -912-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.33 which ranks #9 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #5. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #5 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #15 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.29 (#14 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 33 Games2.97 (#17)10.1% (#10)29.4 (#24)
Road2.94 (#12)10.3% (#7)28.6 (#24)
Home3 (#20)9.9% (#16)30.2 (#24)
Last 7 Games2.86 (#11)9.4% (#12)30.3 (#19)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.64 (#6)91.6% (#7)31.3 (#15)
Road2.76 (#8)91.6% (#432.8 (#18)
Home2.5 (#9)91.6% (#12)29.6 (#10)
Last 7 Games2.57 (#17)91.9% (#11)31.7 (#20)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Jordan Binnington who is projected to be the #9 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Jordan Binnington899Petr MrazekFrederik Andersen
David Perron9715Tomas HertlAlex DeBrincat
Ryan O'Reilly9624Anze KopitarBlake Wheeler
Brayden Schenn9533Dylan StromeNazem Kadri
Alex Pietrangelo10018Anthony DeAngeloAaron Ekblad
Jaden Schwartz6739Mikael GranlundTyler Bertuzzi
Jake Allen2048Thatcher DemkoMalcolm Subban
Austin Poganski060Oliver BjorkstrandMatt Calvert
Oskar Sundqvist370Tyler ToffoliColin White
Erik Foley175Alex KerfootColton Sissons