NHL Outlook: The Toronto Maple Leafs are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Panthers and Behind the Rangers in the East

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 20/1, 4.8% (#10). They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 2% chance is #11 in the league. In simulations, they win the East 3.6% of the time and are not a good value at 10/1, 9.1%. They are projected to finish with 95 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 102.5. Their playoff chances stand at 66.4% (0% to win the division). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 69 games, their expected win percentage is 57% based on the money line odds. At 35-25-9 they are short of expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (1076 units). They are not good on puck lines (30-39) for a -325 loss. Their over-under record is 39-29-1. Based on computer simulations they only have a 44% chance to beat the Lightning in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/10 TB44%2-4, -1163-3
3/12 NSH56%1-2, -1041-2
3/14 BOS43%5-9, -4186-7-1
3/17 NJ75%5-0, +2874-1
3/19 NYI64%2-3, -1402-3

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.19 which ranks #10 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #14. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #9 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #14 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.17 (#15 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 69 Games3.39 (#3)10.3% (#9)32.8 (#6)
Road3.42 (#2)10.6% (#6)32.3 (#6)
Home3.36 (#10)10.1% (#14)33.3 (#9)
Last 6 Games2.67 (#21)9.1% (#16)29.3 (#26)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.2 (#27)89.9% (#24)31.8 (#19)
Road3.31 (#22)89.7% (#2232.1 (#16)
Home3.09 (#23)90.2% (#20)31.6 (#22)
Last 6 Games2.5 (#10)91.5% (#12)29.5 (#11)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Frederik Andersen who is projected to be the #13 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Frederik Andersen8913Pekka RinneSemyon Varlamov
Auston Matthews1008Sebastian AhoElias Pettersson
Mitch Marner994Patrick KaneMikko Rantanen
John Tavares9915Sean CouturierMathew Barzal
William Nylander9620Tom WilsonEvgenii Dadonov
Zach Hyman5725Jakub VranaRickard Rakell
Morgan Rielly8715Ryan EllisRasmus Dahlin
Tyson Barrie9622Adam FoxShea Weber
Kasperi Kapanen4353Jonathan DrouinSonny Milano
Kyle Clifford258Denis GurianovPatrick Maroon