SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their odds to win it all are 20/1, 4.8% (#10). They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 2% chance is #11 in the league. In simulations, they win the East 3.6% of the time and are not a good value at 10/1, 9.1%. They are projected to finish with 95 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 102.5. Their playoff chances stand at 66.4% (0% to win the division). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the East.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
After 69 games, their expected win percentage is 57% based on the money line odds. At 35-25-9 they are short of expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (1076 units). They are not good on puck lines (30-39) for a -325 loss. Their over-under record is 39-29-1. Based on computer simulations they only have a 44% chance to beat the Lightning in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|3/10 TB||44%||2-4, -116||3-3|
|3/12 NSH||56%||1-2, -104||1-2|
|3/14 BOS||43%||5-9, -418||6-7-1|
|3/17 NJ||75%||5-0, +287||4-1|
|3/19 NYI||64%||2-3, -140||2-3|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.19 which ranks #10 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #14. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #9 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #14 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.17 (#15 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 69 Games||3.39 (#3)||10.3% (#9)||32.8 (#6)|
|Road||3.42 (#2)||10.6% (#6)||32.3 (#6)|
|Home||3.36 (#10)||10.1% (#14)||33.3 (#9)|
|Last 6 Games||2.67 (#21)||9.1% (#16)||29.3 (#26)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||3.2 (#27)||89.9% (#24)||31.8 (#19)|
|Road||3.31 (#22)||89.7% (#22||32.1 (#16)|
|Home||3.09 (#23)||90.2% (#20)||31.6 (#22)|
|Last 6 Games||2.5 (#10)||91.5% (#12)||29.5 (#11)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Frederik Andersen who is projected to be the #13 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Frederik Andersen||89||13||Pekka Rinne||Semyon Varlamov|
|Auston Matthews||100||8||Sebastian Aho||Elias Pettersson|
|Mitch Marner||99||4||Patrick Kane||Mikko Rantanen|
|John Tavares||99||15||Sean Couturier||Mathew Barzal|
|William Nylander||96||20||Tom Wilson||Evgenii Dadonov|
|Zach Hyman||57||25||Jakub Vrana||Rickard Rakell|
|Morgan Rielly||87||15||Ryan Ellis||Rasmus Dahlin|
|Tyson Barrie||96||22||Adam Fox||Shea Weber|
|Kasperi Kapanen||43||53||Jonathan Drouin||Sonny Milano|
|Kyle Clifford||2||58||Denis Gurianov||Patrick Maroon|