SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
The Golden Knights are one of 2 teams tied for having the best chance to win the Stanley Cup based on the odds (6/1, 14.3%). Their 4.5% chance is #8 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the West 13.8% of the time and are not a good value at 11/4, 26.7%. They are projected to finish with 98 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 102.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs. Their chances of winning their division stand at 54.8%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the West.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
After 70 games, their expected win percentage is 58% based on the money line odds. At 38-24-8 they are short of expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down quite a bit (512 units). They are not good on puck lines (30-41) for a -569 loss. Their over-under record is 34-33 with 3 pushes. Their next game vs the Wild should be close. The Golden Knights are winning 50 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|3/12 MIN||50%||2-3, -150||0-4-1|
|3/15 COL||47%||1-4, -331||3-2|
|3/17 DAL||60%||4-1, +227||1-3-1|
|3/18 ARI||52%||4-3, -9||2-5|
|3/21 DET||85%||1-1-1, -138||1-2|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.21 which ranks #9 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #8. They are the #11 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #10 ranked team among home teams. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.57 which ranks them #6 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 71 Games||3.15 (#13)||9.1% (#21)||34.5 (#1)|
|Road||2.94 (#17)||9.1% (#19)||32.4 (#4)|
|Home||3.35 (#11)||9.2% (#22)||36.4 (#1)|
|Last 7 Games||2.71 (#18)||7.8% (#24)||35 (#3)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||2.94 (#13)||89.9% (#26)||29.2 (#2)|
|Road||2.91 (#9)||90% (#18||29.1 (#3)|
|Home||2.97 (#18)||89.9% (#24)||29.4 (#8)|
|Last 7 Games||2.14 (#4)||91.5% (#12)||25.3 (#1)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Marc-Andre Fleury who is projected to be the #25 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Marc-Andre Fleury||88||25||Tristan Jarry||Connor Hellebuyck|
|Mark Stone||97||13||Ilya Kovalchuk||Brock Boeser|
|Max Pacioretty||99||16||Andreas Athanasiou||Kyle Connor|
|Reilly Smith||95||36||Kailer Yamamoto||Patrik Laine|
|Jonathan Marchessault||94||34||Tanner Pearson||Brady Tkachuk|
|William Karlsson||84||39||Sean Monahan||Erik Haula|
|Paul Stastny||59||55||Robert Thomas||Dylan Larkin|
|Shea Theodore||98||32||Jaccob Slavin||Thomas Chabot|
|Robin Lehner||60||52||Antti Raanta||Jack Campbell|
|Nate Schmidt||71||56||Miro Heiskanen||Vince Dunn|