NHL Outlook: The Vegas Golden Knights are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Oilers and Behind the Avalanche in the West

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Golden Knights are one of 2 teams tied for having the best chance to win the Stanley Cup based on the odds (6/1, 14.3%). Their 4.5% chance is #8 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the West 13.8% of the time and are not a good value at 11/4, 26.7%. They are projected to finish with 98 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 102.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs. Their chances of winning their division stand at 54.8%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 70 games, their expected win percentage is 58% based on the money line odds. At 38-24-8 they are short of expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down quite a bit (512 units). They are not good on puck lines (30-41) for a -569 loss. Their over-under record is 34-33 with 3 pushes. Their next game vs the Wild should be close. The Golden Knights are winning 50 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/12 MIN50%2-3, -1500-4-1
3/15 COL47%1-4, -3313-2
3/17 DAL60%4-1, +2271-3-1
3/18 ARI52%4-3, -92-5
3/21 DET85%1-1-1, -1381-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.21 which ranks #9 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #8. They are the #11 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #10 ranked team among home teams. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.57 which ranks them #6 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 71 Games3.15 (#13)9.1% (#21)34.5 (#1)
Road2.94 (#17)9.1% (#19)32.4 (#4)
Home3.35 (#11)9.2% (#22)36.4 (#1)
Last 7 Games2.71 (#18)7.8% (#24)35 (#3)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.94 (#13)89.9% (#26)29.2 (#2)
Road2.91 (#9)90% (#1829.1 (#3)
Home2.97 (#18)89.9% (#24)29.4 (#8)
Last 7 Games2.14 (#4)91.5% (#12)25.3 (#1)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Marc-Andre Fleury who is projected to be the #25 Goalie the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Marc-Andre Fleury8825Tristan JarryConnor Hellebuyck
Mark Stone9713Ilya KovalchukBrock Boeser
Max Pacioretty9916Andreas AthanasiouKyle Connor
Reilly Smith9536Kailer YamamotoPatrik Laine
Jonathan Marchessault9434Tanner PearsonBrady Tkachuk
William Karlsson8439Sean MonahanErik Haula
Paul Stastny5955Robert ThomasDylan Larkin
Shea Theodore9832Jaccob SlavinThomas Chabot
Robin Lehner6052Antti RaantaJack Campbell
Nate Schmidt7156Miro HeiskanenVince Dunn