NHL Picks: Computer Finds Value in Edmonton Oilers at Carolina Hurricanes

Friday, February 15, 2019

New York Rangers vs Buffalo Sabres

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Sabres to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is BUF 3.1 and NYR 2.8, with Buffalo winning 54% of the time. At -161 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Sabres a 62 percent chance of winning. The Rangers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record and they have the large edge in profit at +151 to -325 units. The average moneyline for the Rangers was -108 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Rangers averaged 3.2 and the Sabres 2 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Rangers+1402.82.840%46%3.2 (4 Wins)
Buffalo Sabres-1613.23.160%54%2.0 (1 Win)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Edmonton Oilers vs Carolina Hurricanes

The odds and our simulations favor the Hurricanes over the Oilers, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is CAR 3 and EDM 2.8, and Carolina is winning 54% of simulations. The moneyline for the Hurricanes is -175 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Hurricanes are 3-2. They have the large edge in units at +69 to -91 units. The average moneyline for the Hurricanes was -37 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Hurricanes averaged 3.8 goals per game and the Oilers 3.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Edmonton Oilers+1552.72.838%46%3.6 (2 Wins)
Carolina Hurricanes-1753.33.062%54%3.8 (3 Wins)

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New Jersey Devils vs Minnesota Wild

The Wild are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is MIN 3.1 and NJ 2.5, and Minnesota is winning 62% of simulations. At -222 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Wild a 69 percent chance of winning. Head-to-head, the Devils are 3-2. They have the large edge in units at +256 to -136. The average moneyline for the Devils was +52 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Wild averaged 3 goals per game and the Devils 2.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Jersey Devils+1802.62.534%38%2.8 (3 Wins)
Minnesota Wild-2223.43.166%62%3.0 (2 Wins)

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Boston Bruins vs Anaheim Ducks

The odds and our simulations favor the Bruins over the Ducks despite being on the road. The projected score is Bruins 2.8 and Ducks 2.3, with Boston winning 60% of the latest sims. At -172 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Bruins a 63 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Bruins to win. The Ducks have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record and they have the large edge in profit at +312 to -336 units. The Bruins were -129 favorites on average. In these games the Ducks averaged 3.4 goals per game and the Bruins 2.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Bruins-1723.02.861%60%2.4 (1 Win)
Anaheim Ducks+1502.52.339%40%3.4 (4 Wins)

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