NHL Picks: Not a Lot of Value Tonight…Lean on Calgary vs Rangers

Friday, March 15, 2019

Carolina Hurricanes vs Columbus Blue Jackets

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Blue Jackets. The projected score is CLB 3.2 and CAR 3.1, with Columbus winning 52% of the time. At -132 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Blue Jackets a 57 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Hurricanes to win. Head-to-head, the Hurricanes are 4-3. They have the large edge in units at +179 to -100. The average moneyline for the Blue Jackets was -65 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Hurricanes averaged 2.3 and the Blue Jackets 2 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Carolina Hurricanes+1102.93.146%48%2.3 (4 Wins)
Columbus Blue Jackets-1323.13.254%52%2.0 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

Philadelphia Flyers vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Maple Leafs to win the game. The projected score is TOR 3.8 and PHI 2.8, and Toronto is winning 68% of simulations. The moneyline for the Maple Leafs is -192 which translates to 66 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Maple Leafs based on how the moneyline is moving. In their last 7 matchups the Flyers are 4-3. They have the large edge in units at +68 to -171. The average moneyline for the Maple Leafs was -62 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Maple Leafs averaged 3.3 goals per game and the Flyers 2.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Flyers+1672.92.836%32%2.6 (4 Wins)
Toronto Maple Leafs-1923.63.864%68%3.3 (3 Wins)

Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars

The Golden Knights are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Golden Knights 2.9 and Stars 2.6, with Vegas winning 55% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Golden Knights is -132 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Golden Knights to win. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Golden Knights going 4-1. They have the large edge in units at +355 to -300. The average moneyline for the Stars was +1 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Golden Knights averaged 3 and the Stars 2 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Vegas Golden Knights-1322.82.954%55%3.0 (4 Wins)
Dallas Stars+1102.72.646%45%2.0 (1 Win)

New York Rangers vs Calgary Flames

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Flames over the Rangers. The projected score is CGY 3.9 and NYR 2.4, and Calgary is winning 75% of the sims. At -294 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Flames a 75 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Flames to win. The Rangers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record and they have the large edge in profit at +316 to -317 units. The average moneyline for the Rangers was +16 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Rangers averaged 3.2 and the Flames 2.4 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Rangers+2352.52.429%25%3.2 (4 Wins)
Calgary Flames-2943.53.971%75%2.4 (1 Win)

Anaheim Ducks vs Colorado Avalanche

The odds and our simulations favor the Avalanche over the Ducks. The projected score is COL 3 and ANA 2.5, and Colorado is winning 61% of simulations. The Avalanche are -192 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 66 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Avalanche to win. In their last 5 matchups the Avalanche are 3-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +71 to -135 units. The average moneyline for the Ducks was -42 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Avalanche averaged 2.8 goals per game and the Ducks 2.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Anaheim Ducks+1672.42.536%39%2.2 (2 Wins)
Colorado Avalanche-1923.13.064%61%2.8 (3 Wins)

New Jersey Devils vs Vancouver Canucks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Canucks to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is VAN 3 and NJ 2.7, and Vancouver is winning 57% of the sims. The moneyline for the Canucks is -150 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Devils have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-0 record. They have the large edge in units at +437 to -500. The average moneyline for the Devils was -43 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Devils averaged 2.8 and the Canucks 1 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Jersey Devils+1282.82.742%43%2.8 (5 Wins)
Vancouver Canucks-1503.23.058%57%1.0 (0 Wins)