NHL Picks: Value on Flyers at Home vs New Jersey Devils

Wednesday, October 09, 2019

Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Sabres. The projected score is BUF 3 and MON 2.9, with Buffalo winning 52% of the time. The Sabres are -113 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 53 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Canadiens have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. They have the large edge in units at +22 to -236. The average moneyline for the Canadiens was -94 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Canadiens averaged 3.5 and the Sabres 2.5 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Montreal Canadiens-1053.02.949%48%3.5 (5 Wins)
Buffalo Sabres-1133.03.051%52%2.5 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

New Jersey Devils vs Philadelphia Flyers

The odds favor the Flyers, but the sims are solidly on the Flyers. The projected score is PHI 3.3 and NJ 2.6, with Philadelphia winning 63% of the time. The moneyline for the Flyers is -126 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. The Flyers actually have the significant edge in profit at +-60 to 36 units. The average moneyline for the Flyers was -48 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Flyers averaged 3.5 goals per game and the Devils 3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Jersey Devils+1082.92.646%37%3.0 (4 Wins)
Philadelphia Flyers-1263.13.354%63%3.5 (4 Wins)

Los Angeles Kings vs Vancouver Canucks

The odds and our simulations favor the Canucks over the Kings. The projected score is VAN 3 and LA 2.4, and Vancouver is winning 60% of the sims. At -151 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Canucks a 60 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Canucks are up in this matchup recently going 5-3 and they have the large edge in profit at +335 to -291 units. The Kings were -128 favorites on average. In these games the Canucks averaged 3 goals per game and the Kings 2.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Kings+1322.62.442%40%2.5 (3 Wins)
Vancouver Canucks-1512.93.058%60%3.0 (5 Wins)