NHL Playoff Power Rankings: Bruins and San Jose Looking to Meet Up for Stanley Cup

1BOSTON BRUINS 51.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 57% of Neutral Ice Simulations

In their current series vs the Hurricanes, they have a 97.8% chance of advancing. They have 51.1% chance of winning the championship.

Their 49 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was at home. They won 48.8% on the road which was as expected (51%). They won 29 at home and were expected to win 25.5. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 52.5 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.5 improvement and are projected to finish second in the East.

2SAN JOSE SHARKS 40% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 55% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They have a 78.4 percent chance of getting past the Blues. They have 40% chance of winning the championship.

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 47.3 wins. Their 46 actual wins was below expectation. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (62.6%). They won 51.2% on the road which was as expected (52.9%). We are projecting a +3.6 win improvement next season. They are averaging 49.6 wins per simulation and are projected to finish second in the West.

3ST. LOUIS BLUES 8% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

In their current series vs the Sharks, they have a 21.6% chance of advancing. They have 8% chance of winning the championship.

The regular season went better than expected. They won 45 games vs an expected win total of 42.8. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They won 51.2% on the road which was better than expected (48.4%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 23. We are projecting a +3.5 win improvement next season. They are averaging 48.5 wins per simulation and are projected to finish fifth in the West.

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4CAROLINA HURRICANES 0.9% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They have a 2.2 percent chance of getting past the Bruins. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations.

The regular season went better than expected. They won 46 games vs an expected win total of 43.9. They exceeded expectations on the road. They won 53.7% on the road which was better than expected (48.7%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 23.9. We are projecting a +3.4 win improvement next season. They are averaging 49.4 wins per simulation and are projected to finish seventh in the East.

5TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 62-20-4
Win 61% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 62 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +12.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 30-11 on the road and were expected to win 22.8. They won 32 at home and were expected to win 26.6. We are projecting a +3.7 win improvement next season. They are averaging 65.7 wins per simulation and are projected to finish first in the East. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Lightning could take a step back next season.

6FLORIDA PANTHERS 36-32-14
Win 54% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If the Panthers play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40.4 wins. Their 36 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 48.8% home win percentage was worse than expected (53.7%). They won 39% on the road which was much worse than expected (44.8%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 36 wins and are projected to finish tenth in the East.

7CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 36-34-12
Win 54% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The Blackhawks are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The regular season went as expected. They won 36 games vs an expected win total of 36.5. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 16.5. They won 19 at home and were expected to win 20. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 36 wins per sim and are projected to finish tenth in the West.

8TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 49-32-8
Win 53% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 46 games vs an expected win total of 47.7. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 56.1% on the road which was better than expected (53.3%). They won 23 at home and were expected to win 25.8. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 49.5 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.5 improvement and are projected to finish fifth in the East.

9WASHINGTON CAPITALS 51-29-9
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 44.6 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was in road games. They went 24-17 on the road and were expected to win 20.3. Their 58.5% home win percentage was as expected (59.3%). We are projecting a +3.6 win improvement next season. They are averaging 51.6 wins per simulation and are projected to finish third in the East. The Capitals may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

10CALGARY FLAMES 51-27-9
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 50 games vs an expected win total of 45.9. Their strength was in road games. Their 63.4% home win percentage was as expected (61.1%). They won 58.5% on the road which was much better than expected (50.8%). We are projecting a +3.6 win improvement next season. They are averaging 53.6 wins per simulation and are projected to finish first in the West. The Flames may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

11COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 53-34-5
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 44.4 wins. Their 47 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 25-16 on the road and were expected to win 20.6. They won 22 at home and were expected to win 23.8. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 50.3 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.3 improvement and are projected to finish eighth in the East. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Blue Jackets could take a step back next season.

12WINNIPEG JETS 49-34-5
Win 49% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 47 games vs an expected win total of 45.4. Their strength was in road games. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 20.8. They won 25 at home and were expected to win 24.6. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 50.5 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.5 improvement and are projected to finish fourth in the West. The Jets may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

13COLORADO AVALANCHE 45-35-14
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 38 games vs an expected win total of 42. They came up short at home and on the road. They won 41.5% on the road which was worse than expected (45.9%). They won 21 at home and were expected to win 23.2. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 41.4 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.4 improvement and are projected to finish eighth in the West.

14VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46-34-9
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 46.5 wins. Their 43 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 19-22 on the road and were expected to win 21.1. They won 24 at home and were expected to win 25.4. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 46.4 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.4 improvement and are projected to finish seventh in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Golden Knights could take a step back next season.

15MONTREAL CANADIENS 44-30-8
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40.7 wins. Their 44 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (44.3%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 22.6. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 44 wins per sim and are projected to finish ninth in the East. The Canadiens may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

16PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 37-37-8
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 37 games vs an expected win total of 39.3. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 18-23 on the road and were expected to win 17.5. They won 19 at home and were expected to win 21.8. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 37 wins and are projected to finish eleventh in the East.

17PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 44-29-13
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 44 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 51.2% on the road which was as expected (52%). They won 23 at home and were expected to win 24.9. We are projecting a +3.5 win improvement next season. They are averaging 47.5 wins per simulation and are projected to finish sixth in the East. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Penguins could take a step back next season.

18VANCOUVER CANUCKS 35-36-11
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The Canucks are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 33.9 wins. Their 35 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They won 36.6% on the road which was as expected (36.6%). They won 20 at home and were expected to win 18.9. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 35 wins and are projected to finish twelfth in the West.

19NEW YORK ISLANDERS 52-30-8
Win 45% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went much better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 40. Their strength was in road games. They went 24-17 on the road and were expected to win 18.1. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (53.5%). We are projecting a +3.5 win improvement next season. They are averaging 51.5 wins per simulation and are projected to finish fourth in the East. The Islanders may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

20NASHVILLE PREDATORS 49-32-7
Win 44% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 47 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -0.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went as expected. They won 53.7% on the road which was as expected (52.6%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 25.9. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 50.6 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.6 improvement and are projected to finish third in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Predators could take a step back next season.

21EDMONTON OILERS 35-38-9
Win 44% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 35 games vs an expected win total of 39. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 41.5% on the road which was as expected (42%). They won 18 at home and were expected to win 21.8. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 35 wins per sim and are projected to finish second to last in the West.

22MINNESOTA WILD 37-36-9
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 37 games vs an expected win total of 42.2. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 51.2% on the road which was better than expected (45.9%). They won 16 at home and were expected to win 23.4. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 37 wins per sim and are projected to finish eleventh in the West.

23OTTAWA SENATORS 29-47-6
Win 42% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The Senators could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral ice simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 30.1 wins. Their 29 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 11-30 on the road and were expected to win 13.4. Their 43.9% home win percentage was better than expected (40.9%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 29 wins per sim and are projected to finish last in the East.

24DALLAS STARS 50-36-9
Win 41% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 43 games vs an expected win total of 41.4. Their strength was at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (45.4%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 22.8. We are projecting a +3.4 win improvement next season. They are averaging 46.4 wins per simulation and are projected to finish sixth in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Stars could take a step back next season.

25ARIZONA COYOTES 39-35-8
Win 40% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 39 games vs an expected win total of 37.1. Their strength was in road games. They went 19-22 on the road and were expected to win 16.1. Their 48.8% home win percentage was worse than expected (51.3%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 39 wins and are projected to finish ninth in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Coyotes could take a step back next season.

26ANAHEIM DUCKS 35-37-10
Win 39% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 36.2 wins. Their 35 actual wins was below expectation. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 16-25 on the road and were expected to win 16.1. They won 19 at home and were expected to win 20.1. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 35 wins per sim and are projected to finish third to last in the West. The Ducks may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

27DETROIT RED WINGS 32-40-10
Win 38% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 31.9 wins. Their 32 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 13.9. They won 17 at home and were expected to win 18. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 32 wins per sim and are projected to finish third to last in the East.

28NEW JERSEY DEVILS 31-41-10
Win 37% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 31 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.5 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 11-30 on the road and were expected to win 15.9. They won 20 at home and were expected to win 19.5. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 31 wins per sim and are projected to finish second to last in the East.

29NEW YORK RANGERS 32-36-14
Win 37% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 32 games vs an expected win total of 34.5. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.1. Their 43.9% home win percentage was worse than expected (47.2%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 32 wins and are projected to finish twelfth in the East. The Rangers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

30BUFFALO SABRES 33-39-10
Win 36% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 33 games vs an expected win total of 36.9. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They won 29.3% on the road which was much worse than expected (40.4%). They won 21 at home and were expected to win 20.3. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 33 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth to last in the East. The Sabres may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

31LOS ANGELES KINGS 31-42-9
Win 35% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 31 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 34.1% on the road which was worse than expected (38%). They won 17 at home and were expected to win 19.8. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 31 wins and are projected to finish last in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Kings could take a step back next season.