NHL Playoff Power Rankings: Tampa Bay's Shocking Fall

1WASHINGTON CAPITALS 20% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 57% of Neutral Ice Simulations

In their current series vs the Hurricanes, they have a 92.7% chance of advancing. They have a 63.2% chance of getting past round 2. While their chances vary based on who their opponent is, their aggregate % chance of beating their second round opponent is 69 percent. Their chances of then winning the East is 32.2%. They have 20% chance of winning the championship.

Their 48 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.4 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 58.5% home win percentage was as expected (59.3%). They won 58.5% on the road which was much better than expected (49.6%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 51.6 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.6 improvement and are projected to finish third in the East.

2CALGARY FLAMES 16.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 56% of Neutral Ice Simulations

In their current series vs the Avalanche, they have a 72.8% chance of advancing. They have a 44.7% chance of getting past round 2. While their chances vary based on who their opponent is, their aggregate % chance of beating their second round opponent is 61 percent. Their chances of then winning the West is 29.7%. They have 16.1% chance of winning the championship.

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 45.9 wins. Their 50 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 24-17 on the road and were expected to win 20.8. Their 63.4% home win percentage was as expected (61.1%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 53.6 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.6 improvement and are projected to finish first in the West.

3TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 15.2% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 56% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They have a 64 percent chance of getting past the Bruins. They have a 42.5% chance of getting past round 2. Their percent chance of beating their second round opponent is 66 percent. Their chances of then winning the East is 25%. They have 15.2% chance of winning the championship.

Their 46 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.7 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 23-18 on the road and were expected to win 21.9. They won 23 at home and were expected to win 25.8. We are projecting a +3.5 win improvement next season. They are averaging 49.5 wins per simulation and are projected to finish fifth in the East.

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4COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 8.4% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They have an 86.9 percent chance of getting past the Lightning. They have a 34.3% chance of getting past round 2. While their chances vary based on who their opponent is, their aggregate % chance of beating their second round opponent is 39 percent. Their chances of then winning the East is 17.1%. They have 8.4% chance of winning the championship.

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 44.4 wins. Their 47 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was in road games. They went 25-16 on the road and were expected to win 20.6. They won 22 at home and were expected to win 23.8. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 50.3 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.3 improvement and are projected to finish eighth in the East.

5SAN JOSE SHARKS 7.5% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 53% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They have a 44.7 percent chance of getting past the Golden Knights. They have a 28.8% chance of getting past round 2. While their chances vary based on who their opponent is, their aggregate % chance of beating their second round opponent is 64 percent. Their chances of then winning the West is 15.2%. They have 7.5% chance of winning the championship.

Their 46 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.3 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 21.7. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (62.6%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 49.6 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.6 improvement and are projected to finish second in the West.

6ST. LOUIS BLUES 7.4% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 51% of Neutral Ice Simulations

In their current series vs the Jets, they have a 67.6% chance of advancing. They have a 32.2% chance of getting past round 2. While their chances vary based on who their opponent is, their aggregate % chance of beating their second round opponent is 48 percent. Their chances of then winning the West is 17.4%. They have 7.4% chance of winning the championship.

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 42.8 wins. Their 45 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They won 51.2% on the road which was better than expected (48.4%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 23. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 48.5 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.5 improvement and are projected to finish fifth in the West.

7TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 4.7% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 61% of Neutral Ice Simulations

In their current series vs the Blue Jackets, they still have a 13.1% chance of advancing.  This is down 70 percentage points from where it was at the start of the series, but still very high for a team down 0-3.  They have a 9.2% chance of getting past round 2. While their chances vary based on who their opponent is, their aggregate % chance of beating their second round opponent is 71 percent. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 6.6%. They have 4.7% chance of winning the championship.

The regular season went much better than expected. They won 62 games vs an expected win total of 49.4. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 30-11 on the road and were expected to win 22.8. Their 78% home win percentage was much better than expected (64.8%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 65.7 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.7 improvement and are projected to finish first in the East.

8VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 4.3% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They have a 55.3 percent chance of getting past the Sharks. They have a 30.3% chance of getting past round 2. While their chances vary based on who their opponent is, their aggregate % chance of beating their second round opponent is 55 percent. Their chances of then winning the West is 11.8%. They have 4.3% chance of winning the championship.

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 46.5 wins. Their 43 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 58.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (61.9%). They won 46.3% on the road which was worse than expected (51.5%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 46.4 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.4 improvement and are projected to finish seventh in the West.

9NEW YORK ISLANDERS 4.2% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

In their current series vs the Penguins, they have a 91.6% chance of advancing. They have a 30.8% chance of getting past round 2. Their percent chance of beating their second round opponent is 33 percent. Their chances of then winning the East is 10.8%. They have 4.2% chance of winning the championship.

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was in road games. They went 24-17 on the road and were expected to win 18.1. They won 24 at home and were expected to win 21.9. We are projecting a +3.5 win improvement next season. They are averaging 51.5 wins per simulation and are projected to finish fourth in the East.

10NASHVILLE PREDATORS 3.9% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

In their current series vs the Stars, they have a 66% chance of advancing. They have a 29.6% chance of getting past round 2. Their percent chance of beating their second round opponent is 45 percent. Their chances of then winning the West is 12%. They have 3.9% chance of winning the championship.

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 47.4 wins. Their 47 actual wins was below expectation. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (63.1%). They won 53.7% on the road which was as expected (52.6%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 50.6 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.6 improvement and are projected to finish third in the West.

11WINNIPEG JETS 2.9% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 49% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They have a 32.4 percent chance of getting past the Blues. They have a 13.3% chance of getting past round 2. While their chances vary based on who their opponent is, their aggregate % chance of beating their second round opponent is 40 percent. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 7.1%. They have 2.9% chance of winning the championship.

The regular season went better than expected. They won 47 games vs an expected win total of 45.4. Their strength was in road games. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (60%). They won 53.7% on the road which was better than expected (50.7%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 50.5 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.5 improvement and are projected to finish fourth in the West.

12BOSTON BRUINS 2.7% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 49% of Neutral Ice Simulations

In their current series vs the Maple Leafs, they have a 36% chance of advancing. They have a 14% chance of getting past round 2. Their percent chance of beating their second round opponent is 39 percent. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 6%. They have 2.7% chance of winning the championship.

The regular season went better than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 46.4. Their strength was at home. Their 70.7% home win percentage was better than expected (62.3%). They won 48.8% on the road which was as expected (51%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 52.5 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.5 improvement and are projected to finish second in the East.

13COLORADO AVALANCHE 1.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 44% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They have a 27.3 percent chance of getting past the Flames. They have a 9.8% chance of getting past round 2. Their percent chance of beating their second round opponent is 36 percent. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 4.2%. They have 1.1% chance of winning the championship.

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 38 games vs an expected win total of 42. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 18.8. Their 51.2% home win percentage was worse than expected (56.7%). We are projecting a +3.4 win improvement next season. They are averaging 41.4 wins per simulation and are projected to finish eighth in the West.

14PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 0.7% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

In their current series vs the Islanders, they have an 8.4% chance of advancing. They have a 3.1% chance of getting past round 2. While their chances vary based on who their opponent is, their aggregate % chance of beating their second round opponent is 39 percent. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 1.4%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations.

Their 44 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 21.3. They won 23 at home and were expected to win 24.9. We are projecting a +3.5 win improvement next season. They are averaging 47.5 wins per simulation and are projected to finish sixth in the East.

15DALLAS STARS 0.6% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 40% of Neutral Ice Simulations

In their current series vs the Predators, they have a 34% chance of advancing. They have a 11.4% chance of getting past round 2. While their chances vary based on who their opponent is, their aggregate % chance of beating their second round opponent is 33 percent. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 2.6%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations.

The regular season went better than expected. They won 43 games vs an expected win total of 41.4. Their strength was at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (45.4%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 22.8. We are projecting a +3.4 win improvement next season. They are averaging 46.4 wins per simulation and are projected to finish sixth in the West.

16CAROLINA HURRICANES 0.3% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 42% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They have a 7.3 percent chance of getting past the Capitals. They have a 2.9% chance of getting past round 2. Their percent chance of beating their second round opponent is 37 percent. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.8%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations.

Their 46 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.1 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 20. They won 24 at home and were expected to win 23.9. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 49.4 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.4 improvement and are projected to finish seventh in the East.

17FLORIDA PANTHERS 36-32-14
Win 55% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The Panthers could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral ice simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. Their 36 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 48.8% home win percentage was worse than expected (53.7%). They won 39% on the road which was much worse than expected (44.8%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 36 wins and are projected to finish tenth in the East.

18CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 36-34-12
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The Blackhawks are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The regular season went as expected. They won 36 games vs an expected win total of 36.5. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 16.5. They won 19 at home and were expected to win 20. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 36 wins per sim and are projected to finish tenth in the West.

19MONTREAL CANADIENS 44-30-8
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 44 games vs an expected win total of 40.7. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (44.3%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 22.6. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 44 wins per sim and are projected to finish ninth in the East. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Canadiens could take a step back next season.

20PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 37-37-8
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 37 games vs an expected win total of 39.3. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 46.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (53.2%). They won 43.9% on the road which was as expected (42.7%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 37 wins and are projected to finish eleventh in the East.

21VANCOUVER CANUCKS 35-36-11
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The Canucks are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The regular season went better than expected. They won 35 games vs an expected win total of 33.9. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 36.6% on the road which was as expected (36.6%). They won 20 at home and were expected to win 18.9. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 35 wins per sim and are projected to finish twelfth in the West.

22EDMONTON OILERS 35-38-9
Win 44% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 35 games vs an expected win total of 39. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 17.2. Their 43.9% home win percentage was much worse than expected (53.1%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 35 wins and are projected to finish second to last in the West.

23MINNESOTA WILD 37-36-9
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 42.2 wins. Their 37 actual wins was below expectation. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 39% home win percentage was much worse than expected (57.1%). They won 51.2% on the road which was better than expected (45.9%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 37 wins per sim and are projected to finish eleventh in the West.

24OTTAWA SENATORS 29-47-6
Win 42% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If the Senators play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 29 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.1 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 11-30 on the road and were expected to win 13.4. They won 18 at home and were expected to win 16.8. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 29 wins and are projected to finish last in the East.

25DETROIT RED WINGS 32-40-10
Win 42% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The Red Wings are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Their 32 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +0.1 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went as expected. Their strength was in road games. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 13.9. Their 41.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (43.9%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 32 wins per sim and are projected to finish third to last in the East.

26ARIZONA COYOTES 39-35-8
Win 40% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 39 games vs an expected win total of 37.1. Their strength was in road games. They went 19-22 on the road and were expected to win 16.1. Their 48.8% home win percentage was worse than expected (51.3%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 39 wins and are projected to finish ninth in the West. The Coyotes may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

27ANAHEIM DUCKS 35-37-10
Win 38% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 35 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 46.3% home win percentage was worse than expected (49.1%). They won 39% on the road which was as expected (39.2%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 35 wins and are projected to finish third to last in the West. The Ducks may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

28NEW JERSEY DEVILS 31-41-10
Win 37% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 31 games vs an expected win total of 35.5. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They won 26.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (38.9%). They won 20 at home and were expected to win 19.5. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 31 wins and are projected to finish second to last in the East.

29NEW YORK RANGERS 32-36-14
Win 37% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 32 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.5 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.1. They won 18 at home and were expected to win 19.4. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 32 wins per sim and are projected to finish twelfth in the East.

30BUFFALO SABRES 33-39-10
Win 36% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 36.9 wins. Their 33 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 12-29 on the road and were expected to win 16.6. Their 51.2% home win percentage was as expected (49.6%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 33 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth to last in the East. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Sabres could take a step back next season.

31LOS ANGELES KINGS 31-42-9
Win 34% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 31 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.6. Their 41.5% home win percentage was much worse than expected (48.4%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 31 wins and are projected to finish last in the West. The Kings may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.