NHL Power Ranking: St. Louis Blues Are #7, Behind the Hurricanes and Ahead of Avalanche In Computer Projection

1TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 12-9-3 | Projection: 109.7 Points
Win 70% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They win the championship in 33.7% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 7/1, 12.5%. They are projected to finish with 110 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 108.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 14.2-9.8. They are coming up short of expectations at 12-9-3. Their 62-16-4 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 60%. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +1714.

2BOSTON BRUINS 19-3-5 | Projection: 117.7 Points
Win 64% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They win the championship in 13.6% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 8/1, 11.1%. They are projected to finish with 118 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 100.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the East. After 27 games, their expected win percentage is 59% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 19-3-5 record. Their 49-24-9 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 46.4-35.6. They performed solidly on the money line turning a +164 profit (100 units per).

3WASHINGTON CAPITALS 19-4-5 | Projection: 115.1 Points
Win 62% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Even with the juice, the Capitals are a good betting value. Their 13.4% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #3 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. They are projected to finish with 115 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the East. After 28 games, their expected win percentage is 55% based on the money line odds. At 19-4-5 they are well ahead of expectations. Based on last season's game odds they 'should have had' 44.6 wins. Their 48-26-8 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +305.

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4SAN JOSE SHARKS 15-12-1 | Projection: 97.2 Points
Win 56% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #7 in the league. They are a good bet to win the championship (6.9 percent chance). Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 97 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 94.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 14.3-13.7. At 15-12-1 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 46-27-9 met expectations. Money Line bettors lost -422 on them.

5NASHVILLE PREDATORS 12-10-4 | Projection: 93.4 Points
Win 55% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Predators would be a good betting value. Their 4.5% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #5 in the league. Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. They are projected to finish with 93 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the West. After 26 games, their expected win percentage is 57% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 12-10-4. They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 47-29-6 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -325 units. Their power ranking is much better than their record would indicate. They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #9 in the league.

6CAROLINA HURRICANES 16-10-1 | Projection: 99.2 Points
Win 59% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their simulation based win percentage (4.3%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 99 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 95.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the East. After 27 games, their expected win percentage is 57% based on the money line odds. At 16-10-1 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 54% of their games last season so their 46-29-7 met expectations. Against the money line they turned a +52 profit. They broke even against the money line. If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#4 in the league).

7ST. LOUIS BLUES 17-5-6 | Projection: 103.9 Points
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 3.3% chance is #7 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. They are projected to finish with 104 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 96.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 14.7-13.3. They are ahead of expectations with their 17-5-6 record. They were expected to win 52% of their games last season so their 45-28-9 met expectations. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +382. They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #11 in the league.

8COLORADO AVALANCHE 16-8-2 | Projection: 101.6 Points
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 3.2% chance is #8 in the league. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. They are projected to finish with 102 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 12.8-13.2. At 16-8-2 they ahead of expectations. Their 38-30-14 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 51%. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1030) based on a 100 unit risk per game. Their championship based ranking is much better than their #13 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

9TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 13-11-4 | Projection: 96.7 Points
Win 59% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 2.8% chance is #9 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. They are projected to finish with 97 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 102.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the East. After 28 games, their expected win percentage is 56% based on the money line odds. At 13-11-4 they are short of expectations. They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 46-28-8 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -414 units. They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #5 team in the league.

10PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 14-9-4 | Projection: 98.6 Points
Win 55% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#8 in the league). They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 2.3% chance is #10 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 99 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the East. After 27 games, their expected win percentage is 53% based on the money line odds. At 14-9-4 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 56% of their games last season so their 44-26-12 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -522 units.

11FLORIDA PANTHERS 13-8-5 | Projection: 100.4 Points
Win 57% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#6 in the league). They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 2.3% chance is #11 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to finish with 100 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 95.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 13.3-12.7. At 13-8-5 they are in line with these expectations. Their 36-32-14 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 40.4-41.6. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1114) based on a 100 unit risk per game.

12VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 13-11-4 | Projection: 92.7 Points
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Expect their record to get better based on their much stronger power ranking. They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 2.3% chance is #12 in the league. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. They are projected to finish with 93 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 102.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the West. After 28 games, their expected win percentage is 58% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 13-11-4. Their 43-32-7 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 46.5-35.5. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1070 units.

13WINNIPEG JETS 16-10-1 | Projection: 94.1 Points
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their championship based ranking is much better than their #17 ranking based on our neutral field simulations. They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 1.5% chance is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to finish with 94 points and live up to their pre-season futures line of 93.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the West. After 27 games, their expected win percentage is 47% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 16-10-1 record. They were expected to win 55% of their games last season so their 47-30-5 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-46) against the money line.

14EDMONTON OILERS 17-9-3 | Projection: 93.6 Points
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their championship based ranking is much better than their #18 ranking based on our neutral field simulations. Their 1.4% chance is #14 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 94 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 85.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the West. After 29 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 17-9-3 record. Their 35-38-9 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 39-43. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1167) based on a 100 unit risk per game.

15CALGARY FLAMES 13-12-4 | Projection: 89.1 Points
Win 51% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their power ranking is much better than their record would indicate. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.2% chance is #15 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to finish with 89 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 96.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 15.1-13.9. At 13-12-4 they are short of expectations. Based on last season's game odds they 'should have had' 45.9 wins. Their 50-25-7 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. They were very good against the money line (+439).

16CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 10-11-5 | Projection: 87.5 Points
Win 51% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 0.9% chance is #16 in the league. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. They are projected to finish with 88 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 89.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the West. After 26 games, their expected win percentage is 45% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 10-11-5. They were expected to win 45% of their games last season so their 36-34-12 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -250 units.

17NEW YORK ISLANDERS 17-5-2 | Projection: 100.4 Points
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 0.8% chance is #17 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 100 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 91.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the East. After 24 games, their expected win percentage is 52% based on the money line odds. At 17-5-2 they are well ahead of expectations. Their 48-27-7 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 49%. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +1391. Their power ranking is much worse than their record would indicate.

18DALLAS STARS 15-10-3 | Projection: 89.3 Points
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #20 in the league. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.5% chance is #18 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. They are projected to finish with 89 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 14.5-13.5. At 15-10-3 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 50% of their games last season so their 43-32-7 met expectations. Against the money line they turned a +48 profit. They broke even against the money line.

19ARIZONA COYOTES 15-9-4 | Projection: 91.5 Points
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 0.4% chance is #19 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 92 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 89.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 14-14. At 15-9-4 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 45% of their games last season so their 39-35-8 met expectations. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +364. Their championship based ranking is better than their #21 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

20MONTREAL CANADIENS 11-10-6 | Projection: 89.9 Points
Win 53% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #10 team in the league. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.3% chance is #20 in the league. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to finish with 90 points and live up to their pre-season futures line of 89.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 13.8-13.2. At 11-10-6 they are short of expectations. Their 44-30-8 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 40.7-41.3. They performed solidly on the money line turning a +192 profit (100 units per).

21VANCOUVER CANUCKS 13-11-4 | Projection: 87.5 Points
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 0.3% chance is #21 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to finish with 88 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 88.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the West. After 28 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. At 13-11-4 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 41% of their games last season so their 35-36-11 met expectations. Against the money line they turned a +65 profit. They broke even against the money line.

22PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 15-7-5 | Projection: 95.3 Points
Win 45% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their power ranking is much worse than their record would indicate. They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #25 in the league. Their 0.2% chance is #22 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. They are projected to finish with 95 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 90.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 13.3-13.7. They are ahead of expectations with their 15-7-5 record. They were expected to win 48% of their games last season so their 37-37-8 met expectations. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -884 units.

23NEW YORK RANGERS 13-9-3 | Projection: 90.9 Points
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #19 team in the league. They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to finish with 91 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 88.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 10.8-14.2. At 13-9-3 they ahead of expectations. They were expected to win 42% of their games last season so their 32-36-14 met expectations. Money Line bettors lost -600 on them.

24ANAHEIM DUCKS 11-12-4 | Projection: 77.1 Points
Win 41% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They win the championship in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to finish with 77 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 82.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the West. After 27 games, their expected win percentage is 46% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 11-12-4. They were expected to win 44% of their games last season so their 35-37-10 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -404 units.

25COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 11-11-4 | Projection: 82.2 Points
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to finish with 82 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 84.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 12-14. At 11-11-4 they are short of expectations. Their 47-31-4 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 44.4-37.6. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +201. They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #23 team in the league.

26MINNESOTA WILD 12-11-4 | Projection: 79.8 Points
Win 39% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 80 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 87.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the West. Their playoff chances stand at 7% (0% to win the division). Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 12.7-14.3. They are coming up short of expectations at 12-11-4. Oddsmakers expected them to win 42.2 based on their money line game odds. Their 37-36-9 record last season was very disappointing. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -931 units.

27BUFFALO SABRES 12-10-5 | Projection: 82.6 Points
Win 41% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 83 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 84.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the East. Their playoff chances stand at 4.4% (0% to win the division). Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 12.2-14.8. At 12-10-5 they are short of expectations. Their 33-39-10 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 45%. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1309 units.

28LOS ANGELES KINGS 11-14-2 | Projection: 72.5 Points
Win 37% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 72 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 74.5. In simulations they finish last in the West based on projected wins. Their playoff chances are under 1%. After 27 games, their expected win percentage is 44% based on the money line odds. At 11-14-2 they are in line with these expectations. Their 31-42-9 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 35.4-46.6. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1158) based on a 100 unit risk per game.

29OTTAWA SENATORS 11-15-1 | Projection: 73.2 Points
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #24 team in the league. They are projected to finish with 73 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 70.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the East. Their playoff chances are under 1%. After 27 games, their expected win percentage is 38% based on the money line odds. At 11-15-1 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 37% of their games last season so their 29-47-6 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -633 units.

30NEW JERSEY DEVILS 9-12-4 | Projection: 69.4 Points
Win 36% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 69 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 90.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the East. Even at this early point in the season the simulations have already eliminated them from playoff contention. They were a -110 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 12-13. At 9-12-4 they are short of expectations. Their 31-41-10 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 43%. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1392 units.

31DETROIT RED WINGS 7-19-3 | Projection: 55.1 Points
Win 34% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 55 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 76.5. In simulations they finish last in the East based on projected wins. Even at this early point in the season the simulations have already eliminated them from playoff contention. They were a +650 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 11.1-17.9. They are coming up well short of expectations with their 7-19-3 record. They were expected to win 39% of their games last season so their 32-40-10 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-79) against the money line.