NHL Power Ranking: Tampa Bay Lightning Are #1 Based on Computer Projection

1TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 29-15-4 | Projection: 108 Points
Win 66% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Even with the juice, the Lightning are a good betting value. Their 21.9% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #1 in the league. Current Odds are 6/1, 14.3%. They are projected to finish with 108 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 108.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 28.9-19.1. At 29-15-4 they are in line with these expectations.

2WASHINGTON CAPITALS 33-11-5 | Projection: 116.6 Points
Win 63% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are a good bet to win the championship (17.2 percent chance). Current Odds are 10/1, 9.1%. They are projected to finish with 117 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 27.6-21.4. They are ahead of expectations with their 33-11-5 record.

3ST. LOUIS BLUES 30-11-8 | Projection: 109.2 Points
Win 59% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their championship based ranking is better than their #6 ranking based on our neutral field simulations. If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Blues would be a good betting value. Their 10.1% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #3 in the league. Current Odds are 8/1, 11.1%. They are projected to finish with 109 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 96.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 26.5-22.5. They are ahead of expectations with their 30-11-8 record.

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4BOSTON BRUINS 28-10-12 | Projection: 110.6 Points
Win 61% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 8.2% chance is #4 in the league. Current Odds are 8/1, 11.1%. They are projected to finish with 111 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 100.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the East. After 50 games, their expected win percentage is 59% based on the money line odds. At 28-10-12 they are in line with these expectations.

5FLORIDA PANTHERS 27-16-5 | Projection: 103.4 Points
Win 62% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They win the championship in 6.9% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 103 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 95.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the East. After 48 games, their expected win percentage is 52% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 27-16-5 record. They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #3 team in the league.

6COLORADO AVALANCHE 28-15-6 | Projection: 103.1 Points
Win 56% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #11 in the league. Their 6.3% chance is #6 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 10/1, 9.1%. They are projected to finish with 103 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 25.9-23.1. They are ahead of expectations with their 28-15-6 record.

7CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 24-20-6 | Projection: 91.7 Points
Win 56% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are a good bet to win the championship (4.3 percent chance). Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to finish with 92 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 89.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 22.9-28.1. They are ahead of expectations with their 24-20-6 record. Expect their record to get much better based on their much stronger power ranking. Their championship based ranking is much better than their #9 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

8TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 25-17-7 | Projection: 98.2 Points
Win 60% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their simulation based win percentage (4.3%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 98 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 102.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 28.1-20.9. They are coming up short of expectations at 25-17-7. If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#5 in the league).

9PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 31-13-5 | Projection: 106 Points
Win 57% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#7 in the league). Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 4.1% chance is #9 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. They are projected to finish with 106 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the East. After 49 games, their expected win percentage is 54% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 31-13-5 record.

10NASHVILLE PREDATORS 22-18-7 | Projection: 92 Points
Win 56% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They win the championship in 4% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to finish with 92 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the West. After 47 games, their expected win percentage is 56% based on the money line odds. At 22-18-7 they are short of expectations. Their power ranking is much better than their record would indicate.

11VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 25-19-7 | Projection: 92.3 Points
Win 53% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 3.4% chance is #11 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. They are projected to finish with 92 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 102.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 30.1-21.9. At 25-19-7 they are short of expectations.

12CAROLINA HURRICANES 28-18-3 | Projection: 98.7 Points
Win 57% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #8 team in the league. They win the championship in 2.7% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to finish with 99 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 95.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the East. After 49 games, their expected win percentage is 57% based on the money line odds. At 28-18-3 they are in line with these expectations.

13VANCOUVER CANUCKS 27-18-4 | Projection: 94.4 Points
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.3% chance is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 94 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 88.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the West. After 49 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. At 27-18-4 they ahead of expectations. They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #20 in the league.

14ARIZONA COYOTES 26-20-5 | Projection: 91.4 Points
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.1% chance is #14 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. They are projected to finish with 91 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 89.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 25.6-25.4. At 26-20-5 they are in line with these expectations. Their championship based ranking is better than their #17 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

15EDMONTON OILERS 26-18-5 | Projection: 92.4 Points
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #22 in the league. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1% chance is #15 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to finish with 92 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 85.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the West. After 49 games, their expected win percentage is 48% based on the money line odds. At 26-18-5 they are in line with these expectations.

16CALGARY FLAMES 26-19-5 | Projection: 90.3 Points
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #18 in the league. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.9% chance is #16 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to finish with 90 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 96.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 26.2-23.8. At 26-19-5 they are in line with these expectations.

17PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 26-17-6 | Projection: 95 Points
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.6% chance is #17 in the league. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. They are projected to finish with 95 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 90.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 24.7-25.3. At 26-17-6 they are in line with these expectations. They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #13 team in the league.

18WINNIPEG JETS 25-20-4 | Projection: 89.4 Points
Win 49% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#16 in the league). They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 0.6% chance is #18 in the league. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. They are projected to finish with 89 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 93.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 23.7-26.3. At 25-20-4 they are in line with these expectations.

19NEW YORK ISLANDERS 28-15-5 | Projection: 98.2 Points
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Expect them to fade in the standings because their record based ranking is much better based on their power ranking. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.4% chance is #19 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to finish with 98 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 91.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the East. After 48 games, their expected win percentage is 52% based on the money line odds. At 28-15-5 they ahead of expectations.

20DALLAS STARS 27-17-4 | Projection: 92 Points
Win 45% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their power ranking is worse than their record would indicate. They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #25 in the league. Their 0.3% chance is #20 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. They are projected to finish with 92 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 25.5-22.5. At 27-17-4 they ahead of expectations.

21COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 26-16-8 | Projection: 93.8 Points
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Expect them to fade in the standings because their record based ranking is much better based on their power ranking. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.3% chance is #21 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to finish with 94 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 84.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 23.3-26.7. At 26-16-8 they are in line with these expectations.

22NEW YORK RANGERS 23-20-4 | Projection: 89 Points
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #15 team in the league. They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 0.1% chance is #22 in the league. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to finish with 89 points and live up to their pre-season futures line of 88.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 20.9-27.1. At 23-20-4 they ahead of expectations.

23MINNESOTA WILD 22-21-6 | Projection: 84.1 Points
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Simulations

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the championship is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to finish with 84 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 87.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the West. After 49 games, their expected win percentage is 47% based on the money line odds. At 22-21-6 they are short of expectations.

24MONTREAL CANADIENS 22-21-7 | Projection: 86.4 Points
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the championship is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to finish with 86 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 89.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the East. After 50 games, their expected win percentage is 51% based on the money line odds. At 22-21-7 they are short of expectations. They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #14 team in the league.

25SAN JOSE SHARKS 21-25-4 | Projection: 79.1 Points
Win 45% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They win the championship in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. They are projected to finish with 79 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 94.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 24.2-25.8. At 21-25-4 they are short of expectations.

26BUFFALO SABRES 22-20-7 | Projection: 85.9 Points
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#23 in the league). They are projected to finish with 86 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 84.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the East. Their playoff chances stand at 3.7% (0% to win the division). Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 21.8-27.2. At 22-20-7 they are in line with these expectations.

27ANAHEIM DUCKS 19-24-5 | Projection: 73.4 Points
Win 36% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 73 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 82.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the West. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 21.6-26.4. At 19-24-5 they are short of expectations.

28NEW JERSEY DEVILS 17-24-7 | Projection: 71.1 Points
Win 35% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 71 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 90.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the East. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 20.8-27.2. At 17-24-7 they are in line with these expectations.

29OTTAWA SENATORS 17-23-8 | Projection: 72.4 Points
Win 40% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 72 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 70.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the East. Even at this early point in the season the simulations have already eliminated them from playoff contention. They were a +1500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 18.7-29.3. At 17-23-8 they are in line with these expectations.

30LOS ANGELES KINGS 18-27-5 | Projection: 68.2 Points
Win 36% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 68 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 74.5. In simulations they finish last in the West based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +425 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 21.3-28.7. At 18-27-5 they are in line with these expectations.

31DETROIT RED WINGS 12-34-4 | Projection: 47.2 Points
Win 25% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 47 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 76.5. In simulations they finish last in the East based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +650 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 50 games, their expected win percentage is 37% based on the money line odds. They are coming up well short of expectations with their 12-34-4 record.