NHL Power Ranking: Vegas Golden Knights Are #11, Behind the Avalanche and Ahead of Penguins In Computer Projection

1TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 11-7-2 | Projection: 113.3 Points
Win 68% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Even with the juice, the Lightning are a good betting value. Their 31.5% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #1 in the league. Current Odds are 7/1, 12.5%. They are projected to finish with 113 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 108.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 11.9-8.1. At 11-7-2 they are in line with these expectations. Their 62-16-4 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 60%. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +1714.

2WASHINGTON CAPITALS 16-4-5 | Projection: 112.4 Points
Win 62% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are a good bet to win the championship (14.5 percent chance). Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. They are projected to finish with 112 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 13.6-11.4. At 16-4-5 they ahead of expectations. Their 48-26-8 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 44.6-37.4. They were very good against the money line (+305).

3BOSTON BRUINS 15-3-5 | Projection: 113 Points
Win 64% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Even with the juice, the Bruins are a good betting value. Their 12.1% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #3 in the league. Current Odds are 8/1, 11.1%. They are projected to finish with 113 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 100.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 13.6-9.4. At 15-3-5 they ahead of expectations. Based on last season's game odds they 'should have had' 46.4 wins. Their 49-24-9 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. They performed solidly on the money line turning a +164 profit (100 units per).

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4SAN JOSE SHARKS 12-11-1 | Projection: 94 Points
Win 55% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their power ranking is better than their record would indicate. They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #8 in the league. They are a good bet to win the championship (4.9 percent chance). Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 94 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 94.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 12.1-11.9. At 12-11-1 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 46-27-9 met expectations. Money Line bettors lost -422 on them.

5CAROLINA HURRICANES 14-8-1 | Projection: 100.4 Points
Win 58% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their simulation based win percentage (4.7%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 100 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 95.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the East. After 23 games, their expected win percentage is 58% based on the money line odds. At 14-8-1 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 54% of their games last season so their 46-29-7 met expectations. Against the money line they turned a +52 profit. They broke even against the money line.

6NASHVILLE PREDATORS 10-9-3 | Projection: 92.8 Points
Win 55% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 4% chance is #6 in the league. Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. They are projected to finish with 93 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 12.8-9.2. At 10-9-3 they are short of expectations. They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 47-29-6 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -325 units. Expect their record to get much better based on their much stronger power ranking. Their championship based ranking is much better than their #9 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

7ST. LOUIS BLUES 14-5-5 | Projection: 100.1 Points
Win 53% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their championship based ranking is much better than their #12 ranking based on our neutral field simulations. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 3.7% chance is #7 in the league. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. They are projected to finish with 100 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 96.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 12.9-11.1. At 14-5-5 they ahead of expectations. They were expected to win 52% of their games last season so their 45-28-9 met expectations. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +382.

8FLORIDA PANTHERS 12-6-5 | Projection: 101.5 Points
Win 57% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#6 in the league). If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Panthers would be a good betting value. Their 3.5% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #8 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to finish with 102 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 95.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the East. After 23 games, their expected win percentage is 51% based on the money line odds. At 12-6-5 they are in line with these expectations. Their 36-32-14 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 49%. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1114 units.

9TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 11-10-4 | Projection: 95.1 Points
Win 59% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#4 in the league). Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 3.2% chance is #9 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. They are projected to finish with 95 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 102.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the East. After 25 games, their expected win percentage is 55% based on the money line odds. At 11-10-4 they are short of expectations. They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 46-28-8 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -414 units.

10COLORADO AVALANCHE 13-8-2 | Projection: 96.5 Points
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 3% chance is #10 in the league. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. They are projected to finish with 96 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the West. After 23 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. At 13-8-2 they ahead of expectations. Oddsmakers expected them to win 42 based on their money line game odds. Their 38-30-14 record last season failed to meet expectations. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1030 units. They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #14 in the league.

11VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 11-10-4 | Projection: 92.5 Points
Win 53% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their power ranking is much better than their record would indicate. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 2.8% chance is #11 in the league. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. They are projected to finish with 92 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 102.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 14.7-10.3. At 11-10-4 they are coming up well short of expectations. Oddsmakers expected them to win 46.5 based on their money line game odds. Their 43-32-7 record last season failed to meet expectations. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1070 units.

12PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 12-7-4 | Projection: 99.1 Points
Win 55% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 2.2% chance is #12 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 99 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 12.1-10.9. At 12-7-4 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 56% of their games last season so their 44-26-12 met expectations. Money Line bettors lost -522 on them. If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#7 in the league).

13WINNIPEG JETS 14-9-1 | Projection: 93.7 Points
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #17 in the league. They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 1.8% chance is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to finish with 94 points and live up to their pre-season futures line of 93.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 11.3-12.7. They are ahead of expectations with their 14-9-1 record. They were expected to win 55% of their games last season so their 47-30-5 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-46) against the money line.

14EDMONTON OILERS 15-7-3 | Projection: 94.7 Points
Win 49% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.5% chance is #14 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 95 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 85.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 12.3-12.7. At 15-7-3 they ahead of expectations. Oddsmakers expected them to win 39 based on their money line game odds. Their 35-38-9 record last season failed to meet expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1167) based on a 100 unit risk per game. Their championship based ranking is much better than their #18 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

15NEW YORK ISLANDERS 16-3-2 | Projection: 104.8 Points
Win 51% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Expect them to fade in the standings because their record based ranking is much better based on their power ranking. Their 1.4% chance is #15 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 105 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 91.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 10.7-10.3. At 16-3-2 they are well ahead of expectations. Their 48-27-7 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 49%. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +1391.

16CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 9-9-5 | Projection: 89.1 Points
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their power ranking is better than their record would indicate. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.2% chance is #16 in the league. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. They are projected to finish with 89 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 89.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 10.3-12.7. At 9-9-5 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 45% of their games last season so their 36-34-12 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -250 units.

17CALGARY FLAMES 11-12-3 | Projection: 87.1 Points
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 1.2% chance is #17 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to finish with 87 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 96.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the West. After 26 games, their expected win percentage is 52% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 11-12-3. Their 50-25-7 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 45.9-36.1. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +439. Expect their record to get much better based on their much stronger power ranking. If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#13 in the league).

18MONTREAL CANADIENS 11-7-5 | Projection: 93.3 Points
Win 54% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.9% chance is #18 in the league. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to finish with 93 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 89.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the East. After 23 games, their expected win percentage is 51% based on the money line odds. At 11-7-5 they are in line with these expectations. Their 44-30-8 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 40.7-41.3. Taking them on the money line in every game turned a +192 profit. They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #10 team in the league.

19ARIZONA COYOTES 14-8-2 | Projection: 93.8 Points
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their power ranking is much worse than their record would indicate. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.9% chance is #19 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to finish with 94 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 89.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the West. After 24 games, their expected win percentage is 50% based on the money line odds. At 14-8-2 they ahead of expectations. They were expected to win 45% of their games last season so their 39-35-8 met expectations. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +364.

20DALLAS STARS 14-8-2 | Projection: 90.5 Points
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.6% chance is #20 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. They are projected to finish with 90 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 97.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the West. After 24 games, their expected win percentage is 51% based on the money line odds. At 14-8-2 they ahead of expectations. They were expected to win 50% of their games last season so their 43-32-7 met expectations. Against the money line they turned a +48 profit. They broke even against the money line.

21VANCOUVER CANUCKS 12-8-4 | Projection: 89.4 Points
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 0.5% chance is #21 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to finish with 89 points and live up to their pre-season futures line of 88.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the West. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 11.8-12.2. At 12-8-4 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 41% of their games last season so their 35-36-11 met expectations. Against the money line they turned a +65 profit. They broke even against the money line. They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #23 in the league.

22OTTAWA SENATORS 11-11-1 | Projection: 80.4 Points
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 500/1, 0.2%. They are projected to finish with 80 points and go over their pre-season futures line of 70.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 8.8-14.2. At 11-11-1 they ahead of expectations. They were expected to win 37% of their games last season so their 29-47-6 met expectations. Money Line bettors lost -633 on them. They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #24 in the league.

23NEW YORK RANGERS 10-9-2 | Projection: 87.7 Points
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the championship is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to finish with 88 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 88.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 9.2-11.8. At 10-9-2 they ahead of expectations. They were expected to win 42% of their games last season so their 32-36-14 met expectations. Money Line bettors lost -600 on them. They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #19 team in the league.

24PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 11-7-5 | Projection: 88.4 Points
Win 45% of Neutral Ice Simulations

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the championship is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. They are projected to finish with 88 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 90.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the East. After 23 games, their expected win percentage is 48% based on the money line odds. At 11-7-5 they are in line with these expectations. They were expected to win 48% of their games last season so their 37-37-8 met expectations. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -884 units.

25ANAHEIM DUCKS 10-11-3 | Projection: 78.6 Points
Win 40% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to finish with 79 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 82.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the West. After 24 games, their expected win percentage is 46% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 10-11-3. They were expected to win 44% of their games last season so their 35-37-10 met expectations. Money Line bettors lost -404 on them.

26COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 9-9-4 | Projection: 83.7 Points
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#22 in the league). While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the championship is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to finish with 84 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 84.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the East. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 10-12. At 9-9-4 they are short of expectations. Based on last season's game odds they 'should have had' 44.4 wins. Their 47-31-4 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. They were very good against the money line (+201).

27MINNESOTA WILD 9-11-3 | Projection: 75 Points
Win 39% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 75 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 87.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the West. Their playoff chances stand at 2.2% (0% to win the division). Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 10.6-12.4. They are coming up short of expectations at 9-11-3. Their 37-36-9 record last season was very disappointing. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 42.2-39.8. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-931) based on a 100 unit risk per game.

28BUFFALO SABRES 10-9-3 | Projection: 80.2 Points
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 80 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 84.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the East. Their playoff chances stand at 2.9% (0% to win the division). Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 10.2-11.8. At 10-9-3 they are in line with these expectations. Oddsmakers expected them to win 36.9 based on their money line game odds. Their 33-39-10 record last season failed to meet expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1309) based on a 100 unit risk per game.

29LOS ANGELES KINGS 9-13-1 | Projection: 69.6 Points
Win 37% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 70 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 74.5. In simulations they finish last in the West based on projected wins. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 10-13. At 9-13-1 they are in line with these expectations. Their 31-42-9 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 43%. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1158 units.

30NEW JERSEY DEVILS 8-10-4 | Projection: 70.3 Points
Win 36% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 70 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 90.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the East. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 10.5-11.5. At 8-10-4 they are short of expectations. Their 31-41-10 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 43%. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1392) based on a 100 unit risk per game.

31DETROIT RED WINGS 7-15-3 | Projection: 62.2 Points
Win 35% of Neutral Ice Simulations

They are projected to finish with 62 points and come in under their pre-season futures line of 76.5. In simulations they finish last in the East based on projected wins. Even at this early point in the season the simulations have already eliminated them from playoff contention. They were a +650 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 9.8-15.2. At 7-15-3 they are short of expectations. They were expected to win 39% of their games last season so their 32-40-10 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-79) against the money line.