NHL Power Rankings 19-20: Bet on Lightning and Capitals in East… San Jose and Calgary in West

1TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 24.3% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 65% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 110 Pts

They have a 73.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 48.9% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 35.5%. They have 24.3% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 49.4 wins. Their 62 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. Their 78% home win percentage was much better than expected (64.8%). They won 73.2% on the road which was much better than expected (55.7%).

2TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 10.8% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 62% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 104 Pts

They have a 57.9% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 29.9% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 18.6%. They have 10.8% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 46 games vs an expected win total of 47.7. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 23-18 on the road and were expected to win 21.9. They won 23 at home and were expected to win 25.8.

3VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 9.4% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 60% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 101 Pts

They have a 57.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 33.4% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 19.7%. They have 9.4% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 46.5 wins. Their 43 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was worse than expected (51.5%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 25.4.

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4WASHINGTON CAPITALS 8.5% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 59% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 103 Pts

They have a 60.6% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 38.1% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 15.9%. They have 8.5% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 44.6 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 58.5% home win percentage was as expected (59.3%). They won 58.5% on the road which was much better than expected (49.6%).

5SAN JOSE SHARKS 7.5% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 58% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 103 Pts

They have a 56.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 28.5% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 17.1%. They have 7.5% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 46 games vs an expected win total of 47.3. They won 51.2% on the road which was as expected (52.9%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 25.7.

6CALGARY FLAMES 6.7% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 58% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 99 Pts

They have a 49.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 26.2% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 14.6%. They have 6.7% chance of winning the championship. Their 50 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +4.1 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They went 24-17 on the road and were expected to win 20.8. They won 26 at home and were expected to win 25.

7BOSTON BRUINS 5.9% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 59% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 104 Pts

They have a 46.8% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 20.3% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 10.8%. They have 5.9% chance of winning the championship. Their 49 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was at home. Their 70.7% home win percentage was better than expected (62.3%). They won 48.8% on the road which was as expected (51%).

8COLORADO AVALANCHE 5.7% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 58% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 98 Pts

They have a 46.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 25.4% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 13%. They have 5.7% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 38 games vs an expected win total of 42. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 18.8. They won 21 at home and were expected to win 23.2.

9WINNIPEG JETS 5.2% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 56% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 99 Pts

They have a 47% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 25.9% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 12%. They have 5.2% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went better than expected. They won 47 games vs an expected win total of 45.4. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 20.8. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (60%).

10PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 3.8% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 56% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 98 Pts

They have a 44.6% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 21.5% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 7.9%. They have 3.8% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 44 games vs an expected win total of 46.2. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 21.3. Their 56.1% home win percentage was worse than expected (60.7%).

11ST. LOUIS BLUES 3.4% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 55% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 97 Pts

They have a 40.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 20.1% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 8.9%. They have 3.4% chance of winning the championship. Their 45 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.2 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 51.2% on the road which was better than expected (48.4%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 23.

12NASHVILLE PREDATORS 3.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 54% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 99 Pts

They have a 40.9% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 19.4% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 8.1%. They have 3.1% chance of winning the championship. Their 47 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -0.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went as expected. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (63.1%). They won 53.7% on the road which was as expected (52.6%).

13CAROLINA HURRICANES 1.4% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 53% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 94 Pts

They have a 32% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 13.6% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 3.9%. They have 1.4% chance of winning the championship. Their 46 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.1 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They won 53.7% on the road which was better than expected (48.7%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 23.9.

14DALLAS STARS 1.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 94 Pts

They have a 26.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 10.1% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 3.5%. They have 1.1% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went better than expected. They won 43 games vs an expected win total of 41.4. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (55.5%). They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (45.4%).

15FLORIDA PANTHERS 0.8% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 92 Pts

They have an 18.3% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 6.8% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 2.3%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40.4 wins. Their 36 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 48.8% home win percentage was worse than expected (53.7%). They won 39% on the road which was much worse than expected (44.8%).

16MONTREAL CANADIENS 0.7% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 92 Pts

They have an 18.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 6.5% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 2%. Their 44 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.3 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 61% home win percentage was better than expected (55.1%). They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (44.3%).

17CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 0.5% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 89 Pts

They have a 14.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 5.2% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 1.4%. The regular season went as expected. They won 36 games vs an expected win total of 36.5. They won 41.5% on the road which was as expected (40.2%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 20.

18COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 0.5% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 87 Pts

They have a 12.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 4.7% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 1.2%. Their 47 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They went 25-16 on the road and were expected to win 20.6. Their 53.7% home win percentage was worse than expected (58.1%).

19NEW YORK ISLANDERS 0.2% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 87 Pts

They have a 9.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 2.9% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.6%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was in road games. They won 58.5% on the road which was much better than expected (44.1%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 21.9.

20PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 0.2% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 86 Pts

They have a 9.5% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 3% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.7%. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 37 games vs an expected win total of 39.3. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 46.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (53.2%). They won 43.9% on the road which was as expected (42.7%).

21ARIZONA COYOTES 0.2% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 45% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 88 Pts

They have an 10.8% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 3% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.8%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 37.1 wins. Their 39 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was in road games. They went 19-22 on the road and were expected to win 16.1. Their 48.8% home win percentage was worse than expected (51.3%).

22NEW YORK RANGERS 0.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 44% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 91 Pts

They have a 14.3% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 3.6% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.6%. Their 32 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.5 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.1. Their 43.9% home win percentage was worse than expected (47.2%).

23VANCOUVER CANUCKS 0.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 84 Pts

They have a 6% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 1.7% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.6%. The regular season went better than expected. They won 35 games vs an expected win total of 33.9. Their strength was at home. Their 48.8% home win percentage was better than expected (46%). They won 36.6% on the road which was as expected (36.6%).

24EDMONTON OILERS 0.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 44% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 82 Pts

They have a 3.9% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 0.8% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.2%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 39 wins. Their 35 actual wins was below expectation. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 17.2. Their 43.9% home win percentage was much worse than expected (53.1%).

25MINNESOTA WILD 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 78 Pts

We do not project them to be a playoff team in '19-20. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 37 games vs an expected win total of 42.2. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 51.2% on the road which was better than expected (45.9%). They won 16 at home and were expected to win 23.4.

26DETROIT RED WINGS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 79 Pts

We do not project them to be a playoff team in '19-20. The regular season went as expected. They won 32 games vs an expected win total of 31.9. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 41.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (43.9%). They won 36.6% on the road which was better than expected (33.9%).

27OTTAWA SENATORS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 42% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 77 Pts

Our simulations give them a very slim chance of making the playoffs. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 30.1 wins. Their 29 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 43.9% home win percentage was better than expected (40.9%). They won 26.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (32.6%).

28ANAHEIM DUCKS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 38% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 72 Pts

We do not project them to be a playoff team in '19-20. Their 35 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 16-25 on the road and were expected to win 16.1. Their 46.3% home win percentage was worse than expected (49.1%).

29BUFFALO SABRES 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 39% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 74 Pts

They are not playoff contenders based on our latest simulations. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 33 games vs an expected win total of 36.9. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 51.2% home win percentage was as expected (49.6%). They won 29.3% on the road which was much worse than expected (40.4%).

30NEW JERSEY DEVILS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 37% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 72 Pts

Our simulations give them a very slim chance of making the playoffs. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 31 games vs an expected win total of 35.5. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 11-30 on the road and were expected to win 15.9. They won 20 at home and were expected to win 19.5.

31LOS ANGELES KINGS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 33% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 66 Pts

They are not playoff contenders based on our latest simulations. Their 31 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 41.5% home win percentage was much worse than expected (48.4%). They won 34.1% on the road which was worse than expected (38%).