NHL Power Rankings: Tampa Bay Lightning #1, Bruins #6, Blues Just #10

1TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 26.3% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 65% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 111 Pts

They have a 74.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 50.8% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 37.5%. They have 26.3% chance of winning the championship. Their 62 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +12.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 30-11 on the road and were expected to win 22.8. Their 78% home win percentage was much better than expected (64.8%).

2TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 10% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 61% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 104 Pts

They have a 55.9% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 27.1% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 16.5%. They have 10% chance of winning the championship. Their 46 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.7 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 23-18 on the road and were expected to win 21.9. Their 56.1% home win percentage was worse than expected (63%).

3VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 7.9% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 59% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 100 Pts

Oddsmakers set Vegas' point total line at 103.5 so even with a projected 100 points the bet is Under. They have a 55.3% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 30.5% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 17.4%. They have 7.9% chance of winning the championship. Their 43 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.5 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 58.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (61.9%). They won 46.3% on the road which was worse than expected (51.5%).

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4SAN JOSE SHARKS 7.4% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 58% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 102 Pts

Our computer projection is higher on the Sharks than most anyone outside of San Jose. They are projected for 101 points, well over 94.5 that Vegas has and are making the playoffs in 92% of simluations (line -190, 65.5%). They have a 56.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 30.8% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 17.5%. They have 7.4% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 47.3 wins. Their 46 actual wins was below expectation. They won 51.2% on the road which was as expected (52.9%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 25.7.

5WASHINGTON CAPITALS 7.3% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 58% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 101 Pts

The Capitals are projected to have over 100 points again which would be over their 97.5 line. They have a 57.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 34.4% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 14.1%. They have 7.3% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 44.6 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 58.5% home win percentage was as expected (59.3%). They won 58.5% on the road which was much better than expected (49.6%).

6BOSTON BRUINS 6.9% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 59% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 104 Pts

The Bruins point betting line is 100.5 and they are averaging 103.7 per simulation so we like the Over. They are -500, 83.3% to make the playoffs and the sims have them at 94% so bet 'yes' to make the playoffs. They have a 48.7% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 21% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 11.8%. They have 6.9% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went better than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 46.4. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 20.9. They won 29 at home and were expected to win 25.5.

7CALGARY FLAMES 6.3% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 58% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 100 Pts

The Flames are exceeding regular season betting line expectations. They are projected for nearly 100 points (over 96.5) and with an 89% chance to make the playoffs they are a good bet at -220, 68.8%. They have a 49.9% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 25.6% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 14.3%. They have 6.3% chance of winning the championship. Their 50 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +4.1 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 24-17 on the road and were expected to win 20.8. They won 26 at home and were expected to win 25.

8COLORADO AVALANCHE 6.2% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 57% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 98 Pts

They have a 49.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 27.8% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 14.6%. They have 6.2% chance of winning the championship. Their 38 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 51.2% home win percentage was worse than expected (56.7%). They won 41.5% on the road which was worse than expected (45.9%).

9WINNIPEG JETS 5.7% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 56% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 100 Pts

At -190, 65.5% to make the playoffs and a 87% sim percentage we say bet on the Jets to make the playoffs and to go over 96.5 points. They have a 50.8% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 28.3% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 13.8%. They have 5.7% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 45.4 wins. Their 47 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (60%). They won 53.7% on the road which was better than expected (50.7%).

10ST. LOUIS BLUES 4.4% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 55% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 97 Pts

They have a 42.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 22.4% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 10.8%. They have 4.4% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 42.8 wins. Their 45 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 19.8. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (56%).

11PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 3.9% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 55% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 98 Pts

The Penguins had a 100 points last season but Vegas has them falling back to 95.5 this season. Our projection is for 98 points which means bet the Over. They are also a good bet at -200 to make the playoffs with a sim% of 82.7%. They have a 46.3% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 23.5% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 8.3%. They have 3.9% chance of winning the championship. Their 44 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 56.1% home win percentage was worse than expected (60.7%). They won 51.2% on the road which was as expected (52%).

12NASHVILLE PREDATORS 1.7% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 95 Pts

They have a 32.5% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 13.9% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 5.5%. They have 1.7% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 47.4 wins. Their 47 actual wins was below expectation. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (63.1%). They won 53.7% on the road which was as expected (52.6%).

13CAROLINA HURRICANES 1.7% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 53% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 94 Pts

They have a 32.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 14.4% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 4.1%. They have 1.7% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went better than expected. They won 46 games vs an expected win total of 43.9. Their strength was in road games. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 20. They won 24 at home and were expected to win 23.9.

14FLORIDA PANTHERS 1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 92 Pts

Vegas expects Florida to significantly improve on their 86 points. Their line is 96.5 points and they are -240 to make the playoffs. The sims also have them improving, but to just 92 points (bet under) and a 57% to make the playoffs. They have a 19.3% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 7.1% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 2.3%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40.4 wins. Their 36 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short at home and on the road. They won 39% on the road which was much worse than expected (44.8%). They won 20 at home and were expected to win 22.

15MONTREAL CANADIENS 0.9% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 91 Pts

They have an 18.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 7% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 2.5%. The regular season went better than expected. They won 44 games vs an expected win total of 40.7. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (44.3%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 22.6.

16DALLAS STARS 0.8% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 92 Pts

They have a 23.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 8.7% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 2.9%. Their 43 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +1.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (55.5%). They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (45.4%).

17NEW YORK ISLANDERS 0.4% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 89 Pts

The Islanders had a great season with 103 points, but Vegas expects them to only have 94.5 points this season. The sims have them falling off even more with just 89 points and a 45% chance to make the playoffs (odds are -180). They have a 15.8% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 5.4% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 1.2%. Their 48 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +8 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. Their strength was in road games. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (53.5%). They won 58.5% on the road which was much better than expected (44.1%).

18CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 0.4% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 89 Pts

They have a 14.7% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 4.8% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 1.5%. Their 36 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -0.5 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went as expected. Their 46.3% home win percentage was worse than expected (48.8%). They won 41.5% on the road which was as expected (40.2%).

19COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 0.3% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 85 Pts

They are projected to go 39-34-9 for 87 points which is over the 82.5 betting line. And even though they are only making the playoffs in 33% of simulations they are a good longshot bet at +350, 22.2%. They have a 8.9% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 3.3% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.8%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 44.4 wins. Their 47 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 25-16 on the road and were expected to win 20.6. Their 53.7% home win percentage was worse than expected (58.1%).

20VANCOUVER CANUCKS 0.2% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 83 Pts

Vancouver is at +180, 35.7% to make the playoffs but in simulations this only happens 21% of the time. They are projected for 83 points which is well under their 88.5 line. They have a 6.5% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 2.1% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.6%. Their 35 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +1.1 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 48.8% home win percentage was better than expected (46%). They won 36.6% on the road which was as expected (36.6%).

21PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 0.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 86 Pts

The Flyers' betting line is 90.5 points (up from 82 last season). They are projected to improve to 85 points which means bet the Under. They have a 8.8% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 2.6% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.4%. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 37 games vs an expected win total of 39.3. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 43.9% on the road which was as expected (42.7%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 21.8.

22ARIZONA COYOTES 0.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 45% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 88 Pts

They have a 12% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 3.3% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.8%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 37.1 wins. Their 39 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 48.8% home win percentage was worse than expected (51.3%). They won 46.3% on the road which was much better than expected (39.2%).

23NEW YORK RANGERS 0.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 86 Pts

The Rangers only had 78 points last season but Vegas expects a large +10 point improvement with 88.5 points. Our projection splits the difference with an 84 point projection. They have a 7.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 1.7% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.3%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 34.5 wins. Their 32 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 43.9% home win percentage was worse than expected (47.2%). They won 34.1% on the road which was worse than expected (36.8%).

24NEW JERSEY DEVILS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 41% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 84 Pts

The Devils were just 31-41-10 for 72 points last season but this season is expected to be much better with 80 points. But this is still well under the betting line of 88.5 and they are not a good bet to make the playoffs at +140, 41.7% (sim says 11%). They have a 4.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 1% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.1%. Their 31 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.5 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They won 26.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (38.9%). They won 20 at home and were expected to win 19.5.

25MINNESOTA WILD 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 80 Pts

The Wild had 83 points last season and the Vegas odds have them at 84.5 points. Our projection puts them under this. They have a 2.8% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 0.8% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.1%. Their 37 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -5.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 18.8. They won 16 at home and were expected to win 23.4.

26DETROIT RED WINGS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 79 Pts

They have a 1.5% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 0.3% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0%. The regular season went as expected. They won 32 games vs an expected win total of 31.9. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 41.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (43.9%). They won 36.6% on the road which was better than expected (33.9%).

27EDMONTON OILERS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 44% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 81 Pts

Scout is not projecting Edmonton to have a very good season with just 81.6 points per season simulation which means bet the under 85.5 line. They are -300 to miss the playoffs and the sim says they only have a 16.5% chance to make the playoffs. The 83.5% they do not make the playoffs is much higher than the 75% implied probability. They have a 3.7% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 0.8% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.2%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 39 wins. Their 35 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 43.9% home win percentage was much worse than expected (53.1%). They won 41.5% on the road which was as expected (42%).

28BUFFALO SABRES 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 40% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 78 Pts

With just 78 projected points the Sabres are not a good Over bet with a line of 83.5 points. We do not project them to be a playoff team in '19-20. Their 33 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 29.3% on the road which was much worse than expected (40.4%). They won 21 at home and were expected to win 20.3.

29OTTAWA SENATORS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 41% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 74 Pts

Ottawa only had 64 points last season and their betting line this season is just 68.5, but the projections have them at 77 points making them a very strong over. Tough to believe. They are not playoff contenders based on our latest simulations. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 29 games vs an expected win total of 30.1. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 43.9% home win percentage was better than expected (40.9%). They won 26.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (32.6%).

30ANAHEIM DUCKS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 38% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 75 Pts

With a 76 to 77 point projection Scout says bet under 80.5 wins. They are +375 to make the playoffs which implies a 21.1% chance. They only have a 5.6% chance to make the playoffs based on simulations. We do not project them to be a playoff team in '19-20. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 35 games vs an expected win total of 36.2. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 39% on the road which was as expected (39.2%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 20.1.

31LOS ANGELES KINGS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 33% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 66 Pts

Last season the Kings only had 71 points and Vegas expects a slight improvement to 74.5 this season. The simulations have them at just 66 points. We do not project them to be a playoff team in '19-20. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 31 games vs an expected win total of 35.4. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.6. Their 41.5% home win percentage was much worse than expected (48.4%).