NHL Projection Backs Nashville Predators On Road at Favored St. Louis

Saturday, February 09, 2019

Los Angeles Kings vs Boston Bruins

The Bruins are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is BOS 3.5 and LA 2.3, and Boston is winning 72% of the sims. At -235 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Bruins a 70 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Bruins are up in this matchup recently going 3-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +259 to -195 units. The average moneyline for the Kings was -28 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Bruins averaged 2 goals per game and the Kings 1.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Kings+1852.42.333%28%1.0 (1 Win)
Boston Bruins-2353.13.567%72%2.0 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Detroit Red Wings vs Buffalo Sabres

The simulations slightly favor the Red Wings who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Red Wings 2.8 and Sabres 2.7, with Detroit winning 51% of the latest sims. At -172 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Sabres a 63 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Sabres have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-3 record. They have the large edge in units at +331 to -346 units. The average moneyline for the Sabres was +14 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. Both teams have averaged 2.3 goals in these games.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Red Wings+1502.52.839%51%2.3 (3 Wins)
Buffalo Sabres-1723.02.761%49%2.3 (6 Wins)

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Minnesota Wild vs New Jersey Devils

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Wild. The projected score is Wild 3 and Devils 2.9, with Minnesota being given a 50% chance of winning. The Wild are -125 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Wild based on how the moneyline is moving. The Devils are up in this matchup recently going 3-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +356 to -213 units. The Wild were -162 favorites on average. In these games the Devils averaged 3 goals per game and the Wild 2.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Wild-1252.83.053%50%2.8 (1 Win)
New Jersey Devils+1052.72.947%50%3.0 (3 Wins)

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Colorado Avalanche vs New York Islanders

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Avalanche are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Avalanche 3 and Islanders 2.9, with Colorado winning 53% of the latest sims. At -147 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Islanders a 60 percent chance of winning. Bettors seem to be favoring the Avalanche since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. In their last 5 matchups the Islanders are 3-2. They have the significant edge in units at +41 to -45 units. In these games the Islanders averaged 3.4 goals per game and the Avalanche 2.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Colorado Avalanche+1252.83.043%53%2.8 (2 Wins)
New York Islanders-1473.22.957%47%3.4 (3 Wins)

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Anaheim Ducks vs Philadelphia Flyers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Flyers over the Ducks. The projected score is PHI 3.1 and ANA 2, and Philadelphia is winning 72% of simulations. The Flyers are -245 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 71 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Flyers since the moneyline is moving that way. In their last 5 matchups the Ducks are 3-2. They have the large edge in units at +89 to -99. The average moneyline for the Ducks was -33 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Ducks averaged 3.4 and the Flyers 2.6 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Anaheim Ducks+2002.32.032%28%3.4 (3 Wins)
Philadelphia Flyers-2453.23.168%72%2.6 (2 Wins)

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Winnipeg Jets vs Ottawa Senators

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Jets to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Jets 3.6 and Senators 2.9, and Winnipeg is winning 62% of simulations. The moneyline for the Jets is -172 which translates to 63 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Jets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. They have the large edge in units at +298 to -400. The average moneyline for the Jets was -96 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Jets averaged 4.5 and the Senators 2.2 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Winnipeg Jets-1723.33.661%62%4.5 (4 Wins)
Ottawa Senators+1502.72.939%38%2.2 (0 Wins)

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Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Predators as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Predators 2.9 and Blues 2.6, and Nashville is winning 57% of simulations. The moneyline for the Blues is -116 which translates to 54 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Blues based on how the moneyline is moving. The Predators have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-1 record. They have the large edge in units at +302 to -396. The average moneyline for the Predators was -67 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Predators averaged 3 and the Blues 1.8 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Nashville Predators-1052.72.949%57%3.0 (5 Wins)
St. Louis Blues-1162.82.651%43%1.8 (1 Win)

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Dallas Stars vs Arizona Coyotes

The simulations slightly favor the Coyotes who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is ARI 2.4 and DAL 2.3, and Arizona is winning 53% of the sims. The Stars are -135 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Stars going 5-0. They have the large edge in units at +292 to -500. The Coyotes were +151 underdogs on average. In these games, the Stars averaged 4 and the Coyotes 2 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Stars-1352.92.355%47%4.0 (5 Wins)
Arizona Coyotes+1152.62.445%53%2.0 (0 Wins)

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San Jose Sharks vs Edmonton Oilers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Sharks to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Sharks 3.5 and Oilers 2.9, and San Jose is winning 59% of simulations. At -151 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Sharks a 60 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Sharks going 5-2. They have the large edge in units at +115 to -263. The Sharks were -126 favorites on average. In these games, the Sharks averaged 5 and the Oilers 3.4 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Jose Sharks-1513.43.558%59%5.0 (5 Wins)
Edmonton Oilers+1313.12.942%41%3.4 (2 Wins)

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens

The odds favor the Maple Leafs, but the sims are solidly on the Maple Leafs. The projected score is Maple Leafs 3.7 and Canadiens 2.7, and Toronto is winning 67% of simulations. The moneyline for the Maple Leafs is -120 which translates to 55 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In their last 9 matchups the Maple Leafs are 5-4 but both teams are down overall playing each other (Maple Leafs -75 units, Canadiens -192 units). In these games, the Maple Leafs averaged 3.1 and the Canadiens 2.1 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Maple Leafs-1203.33.752%67%3.1 (5 Wins)
Montreal Canadiens+1003.22.748%33%2.1 (4 Wins)

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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning

The odds and our simulations favor the Lightning over the Penguins, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is TB 3.8 and PIT 3.4, and Tampa Bay is winning 55% of the sims. The moneyline for the Lightning is -172 which translates to 63 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Lightning are 3-2. They have the large edge in units at +34 to -110 units. The average moneyline for the Lightning was -86 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Lightning averaged 4 goals per game and the Penguins 3.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Penguins+1503.03.439%45%3.4 (2 Wins)
Tampa Bay Lightning-1723.53.861%55%4.0 (3 Wins)

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Florida Panthers vs Washington Capitals

The odds and our simulations favor the Capitals over the Panthers. The projected score is WAS 3.7 and FLA 2.8, and Washington is winning 64% of the sims. At -165 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Capitals a 62 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Panthers to win. In their last 7 matchups the Panthers are 4-3. They have the large edge in units at +208 to -182. In these games, the Panthers averaged 3 and the Capitals 2.9 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Florida Panthers+1353.02.841%36%3.0 (4 Wins)
Washington Capitals-1653.53.759%64%2.9 (3 Wins)

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Calgary Flames vs Vancouver Canucks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Flames to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Flames 3.2 and Canucks 2.9, with Calgary winning 57% of the latest sims. The Flames are -161 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Flames based on how the moneyline is moving. Head-to-head, the Flames are 4-3. The Flames actually have the significant edge in profit at +-15 to 53 units. The average moneyline for the Canucks was +80 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Flames averaged 4.1 and the Canucks 3.1 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Calgary Flames-1613.53.260%57%4.1 (4 Wins)
Vancouver Canucks+1403.02.940%43%3.1 (3 Wins)

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Columbus Blue Jackets vs Las Vegas Golden Knights

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Blue Jackets are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Blue Jackets 3.3 and Golden Knights 3.2, with Columbus winning 51% of the latest sims. At -167 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Golden Knights a 63 percent chance of winning. People are betting more heavily on the Golden Knights based on how the moneyline is moving. Head-to-head, the Blue Jackets are 2-1. They have the large edge in units at +71 to -142. The average moneyline for the Blue Jackets was +36 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Blue Jackets averaged 2.7 and the Golden Knights 2.3 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Columbus Blue Jackets+1453.03.339%51%2.7 (2 Wins)
Las Vegas Golden Knights-1673.53.261%49%2.3 (1 Win)

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