NHL Stanley Cup and Conference Futures: Lightning Chances are Rising

There is a large 119% gap between East leaders. The Tampa Bay Lightning lead with a 43.9 percent chance of winning the East and the Pittsburgh Penguins are at 20%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Penguins chances are down from 23.3 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only -2.05 points separate the 3 teams projected for the #7, #8 and #9 best West record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the West with just 4 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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Tampa Bay Lightning123.697.6%100.0%5/2 (28.6%)43.9%
Pittsburgh Penguins105.437.0%99.7%5/1 (16.7%)20.0%
Washington Capitals106.144.3%99.8%5/1 (16.7%)15.1%
Toronto Maple Leafs107.62.3%99.9%5/1 (16.7%)13.9%
Columbus Blue Jackets101.916.4%98.5%8/1 (11.1%)3.9%
Boston Bruins98.80.1%95.9%6/1 (14.3%)2.8%
New York Islanders95.32.2%87.0%20/1 (4.8%)0.2%
Florida Panthers82.80.0%11.9%50/1 (2%)--
New Jersey Devils84.80.0%21.2%100/1 (1%)--
Montreal Canadiens88.40.0%42.8%20/1 (4.8%)--
Carolina Hurricanes84.10.0%16.6%30/1 (3.2%)--
Buffalo Sabres85.50.0%23.6%20/1 (4.8%)--
Philadelphia Flyers76.60.0%1.4%150/1 (0.7%)--
New York Rangers75.60.0%0.9%150/1 (0.7%)--
Ottawa Senators74.80.0%0.5%250/1 (0.4%)--
Detroit Red Wings73.00.0%0.2%250/1 (0.4%)--

The percentage difference at the top of the West is at 32%. The San Jose Sharks at 22.4% trails the Winnipeg Jets at 29.7%. The gap seems to be lessening. The Jets chances are down from 37.6 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a small difference in projected points between the teams with the #7 best record and the team with the #9 best record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the West with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

Winnipeg Jets109.580.4%97.4%7/2 (22.2%)29.7%
San Jose Sharks104.930.7%90.9%5/1 (16.7%)22.4%
Calgary Flames108.260.3%94.8%5/1 (16.7%)16.9%
Nashville Predators102.619.0%89.2%7/2 (22.2%)12.1%
Las Vegas Golden Knights100.48.9%87.5%3/1 (25%)11.8%
Minnesota Wild89.80.3%71.7%40/1 (2.4%)2.8%
Colorado Avalanche90.20.2%72.5%25/1 (3.8%)2.4%
Edmonton Oilers86.30.0%52.8%50/1 (2%)0.7%
Dallas Stars87.10.1%57.5%15/1 (6.2%)0.5%
Vancouver Canucks83.70.0%35.6%50/1 (2%)0.4%
St. Louis Blues83.80.0%35.4%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Anaheim Ducks78.20.0%9.2%50/1 (2%)--
Arizona Coyotes75.50.0%4.1%50/1 (2%)--
Los Angeles Kings70.70.0%0.5%150/1 (0.7%)--
Chicago Blackhawks72.30.0%1.1%250/1 (0.4%)--

Below are the latest NHL Futures for winning the Stanley Cup. At #2, the Penguins have a 13 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup, which is 18 percentage points behind the Lightning. The separation between the team with the #7 highest chances vs the #9 highest is 2.8 percentage points.

Tampa Bay Lightning5/116.7%30.9%--
Pittsburgh Penguins10/19.1%13.1%--
Winnipeg Jets8/111.1%13.0%DOWN
San Jose Sharks10/19.1%9.5%UP
Washington Capitals10/19.1%8.3%DOWN
Toronto Maple Leafs10/19.1%7.9%DOWN
Calgary Flames10/19.1%6.1%--
Nashville Predators8/111.1%3.8%DOWN
Las Vegas Golden Knights7/112.5%3.4%DOWN
Columbus Blue Jackets16/15.9%1.5%--
Boston Bruins12/17.7%1.2%DOWN