NHL UNDERDOG PARLAY: Columbus -104 on the Road in Philly and Ottawa +100 at Home vs Montreal

Thursday, December 06, 2018

Colorado Avalanche vs Florida Panthers

The odds favor the Panthers, but the sims are solidly on the Panthers. The projected score is FLA 3.2 and COL 3, and Florida is winning 55% of the sims. At -110 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Panthers a 52 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons but the Panthers get the slight edge in profit at +-38 to 6 units. The average moneyline for the Panthers was -76 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. Both teams have averaged 3 goals in these games.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Colorado Avalanche-1003.03.049%45%3.0 (2 Wins)
Florida Panthers-1103.03.251%55%3.0 (2 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Columbus Blue Jackets vs Philadelphia Flyers

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Blue Jackets are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Blue Jackets 3.2 and Flyers 2.9, with Columbus winning 56% of the latest sims. At -110 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Flyers a 52 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Blue Jackets going 6-3. They have the large edge in units at +126 to -296. The average moneyline for the Blue Jackets was -94 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Blue Jackets averaged 2.8 and the Flyers 2.1 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Columbus Blue Jackets-1043.23.249%56%2.8 (6 Wins)
Philadelphia Flyers-1103.32.951%44%2.1 (3 Wins)

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New York Islanders vs Pittsburgh Penguins

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Penguins over the Islanders. The projected score is PIT 3.9 and NYI 2.8, and Pittsburgh is winning 68% of simulations. At -213 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Penguins a 68 percent chance of winning. People are betting more heavily on the Penguins based on how the moneyline is moving. They both have 3 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. The Penguins actually have the large edge in profit at +-106 to 180 units. In these games, the Islanders averaged 3 and the Penguins 2.8 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Islanders+1752.92.835%32%3.0 (3 Wins)
Pittsburgh Penguins-2133.63.965%68%2.8 (3 Wins)

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Detroit Red Wings vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Maple Leafs to win the game. The projected score is TOR 3.8 and DET 2.4, and Toronto is winning 76% of simulations. The moneyline for the Maple Leafs is -323 which translates to 76 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Maple Leafs have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-1 record and they have the large edge in profit at +371 to -713 units. In these games the Maple Leafs averaged 4 goals per game and the Red Wings 2.7.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Red Wings+2602.42.427%24%2.7 (1 Win)
Toronto Maple Leafs-3233.63.873%76%4.0 (8 Wins)

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Montreal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Senators are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is OTT 3.4 and MON 2.7, with Ottawa winning 63% of the time. The Canadiens are -120 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 55 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Canadiens have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +78 to -195 units. The average moneyline for the Canadiens was -109 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Canadiens averaged 3.7 and the Senators 2.3 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Montreal Canadiens-1203.32.752%37%3.7 (4 Wins)
Ottawa Senators+1003.23.448%63%2.3 (2 Wins)

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Boston Bruins vs Tampa Bay Lightning

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Lightning over the Bruins. The projected score is TB 3.7 and BOS 2.8, and Tampa Bay is winning 65% of the sims. The moneyline for the Lightning is -178 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Lightning to win. The Bruins have the recent head-to-head edge going 8-6 and they have the large edge in profit at +193 to -165 units. The average moneyline for the Bruins was -40 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Bruins averaged 3 and the Lightning 2.7 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Bruins+1542.72.838%35%3.0 (8 Wins)
Tampa Bay Lightning-1783.33.762%65%2.7 (6 Wins)

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Washington Capitals vs Arizona Coyotes

The odds favor the Capitals, but the sims are solidly on the Capitals. The projected score is Capitals 3.2 and Coyotes 2.5, with Washington being given a 64% chance of winning. At -125 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Capitals a 56 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Capitals to win. Head-to-head, the Coyotes are 3-2. They have the large edge in units at +371 to -234 units. The Capitals were -266 favorites on average. In these games the Coyotes averaged 3.2 goals per game and the Capitals 2.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Capitals-1252.83.253%64%2.6 (2 Wins)
Arizona Coyotes+1052.72.547%36%3.2 (3 Wins)

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Minnesota Wild vs Calgary Flames

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Flames. The projected score is Wild 3 and Flames 2.9, with Minnesota being given a 50% chance of winning. The Flames are -130 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Flames have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +285 to -172 units. The average moneyline for the Flames was +37 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Flames averaged 2.5 goals per game and the Wild 1.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Wild+1182.93.045%50%1.8 (2 Wins)
Calgary Flames-1303.13.155%50%2.5 (4 Wins)

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Nashville Predators vs Vancouver Canucks

The Predators are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Predators 3.2 and Canucks 2.3, and Nashville is winning 67% of simulations. At -157 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Predators a 61 percent chance of winning. Bettors seem to be favoring the Canucks since the moneyline is moving that way. The Predators are up in this matchup recently going 4-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +22 to -105 units. The Predators were -179 favorites on average. In these games, the Predators averaged 3.3 and the Canucks 2.2 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Nashville Predators-1573.03.259%67%3.3 (4 Wins)
Vancouver Canucks+1362.52.341%33%2.2 (2 Wins)

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Chicago Blackhawks vs Las Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is LV 3.8 and CHI 2.5, and Las Vegas is winning 74% of simulations. The Golden Knights are -270 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 73 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Golden Knights since the moneyline is moving that way. The Golden Knights have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. They have the large edge in units at +396 to -400 units. The average moneyline for the Golden Knights was -19 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Golden Knights averaged 5.5 goals per game and the Blackhawks 2.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Blackhawks+2202.52.530%26%2.8 (0 Wins)
Las Vegas Golden Knights-2703.53.870%74%5.5 (4 Wins)

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New Jersey Devils vs Los Angeles Kings

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Devils. The projected score is Devils 2.8 and Kings 2.7, with New Jersey being given a 52% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Devils is -116 which translates to 54 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Devils based on how the moneyline is moving. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. The Kings actually have the significant edge in profit at +-54 to 30 units. In these games, the Devils averaged 2.8 and the Kings 2 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Jersey Devils-1162.82.851%52%2.8 (2 Wins)
Los Angeles Kings-1052.72.749%48%2.0 (2 Wins)

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