Penguins Faces Fatigue Over Next 5 Traveling 9137 Miles Across 9 Time Zones

NEXT 3 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The forecast for their next 3 games is very good. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 18
LIKELY WIN
76% @ARI
2953 miles
JAN 19**
CLOSE GAME
47% @LV
391 miles
JAN 28
LIKELY WIN
72% NJ
--
JAN 30
CLOSE GAME
49% TB
--
FEB 1
LIKELY WIN
72% OTT
--
FEB 2**
CLOSE GAME
45% @TOR
360 miles
FEB 5
LIKELY WIN
77% CAR
--
FEB 7
LIKELY WIN
62% @FLA
1590 miles
FEB 9
LIKELY LOSS
34% @TB
1409 miles
FEB 11
LIKELY WIN
68% @PHI
414 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 3 games is a record of 2-1 (47% chance). Their chances of winning their next 3 are 26.4%. At #8 in the conference, they are behind the Canadiens by one point. With a +0.55 advantage in projected wins over their next 3 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Sabres by 2 points. With a +1.6 advantage in projected wins over their next 3 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Penguins are the most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Penguins are playing 5 games, traveling 9137 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #5 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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The latest over/under line is 6 but in simulations the average total points is quite different and you can visit Sportsline.com to find out what side of the line you want to be on.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 25-15-6 the Penguins are behind their money line projected win total of 26.4 wins. They have won 52% of their road games and were expected to win 53%. At home they have a 57% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 62%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 7-3-0 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 5.7 wins. We have simulated the Penguins playing every other team on neutral ice (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 64.3% of the time (#2 in the league). They have moved up from #7 in the league back on 11/28.

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.59 which ranks #6 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #12. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #2 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #14 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.5 which ranks them #7 over this stretch, slightly worse than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 46 Games3.52 (#5)10.8% (#7)32.6 (#8)
Road3.48 (#4)10.7% (#6)32.7 (#8)
Home3.57 (#5)11% (#7)32.5 (#14)
Last 6 Games3.83 (#4)11.6% (#9)33 (#5)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.93 (#14)91% (#8)32.6 (#24)
Road2.74 (#4)91.2% (#631.2 (#13)
Home3.13 (#25)90.8% (#18)34 (#29)
Last 6 Games3.33 (#24)88.9% (#23)30 (#16)

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Penguins are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 8.9% chance of winning it all. On 12/3 they had a 2.3% chance before increasing to 14.9% on 1/10. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 11.5%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 14.3%. They have a 37.1% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (64%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 71% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 39.4%. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the East (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the Finals 19.3% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #11 Toughest

Penguins' Championship Forecast Changes

DateProjected PTSPlayoff% ChampNHL Champ
Jan 18104.799.6%19.3%11.5%
Jan 10107.999.9%23.3%14.9%
Difference-3.2-0.3%-4%-3.4%

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Sidney Crosby4100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #4)
Phil Kessel3.5100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #7)
Evgeni Malkin3.8100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #12)
Kris Letang2.6100% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #4)
Jake Guentzel395% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #19)
Matt Murray486% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #10)