NEXT 3 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The forecast for their next 3 games is very good. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)JAN 18LIKELY WIN76% @ARI2953 milesJAN 19**CLOSE GAME47% @LV391 milesJAN 28LIKELY WIN72% NJ--JAN 30CLOSE GAME49% TB--FEB 1LIKELY WIN72% OTT--FEB 2**CLOSE GAME45% @TOR360 milesFEB 5LIKELY WIN77% CAR--FEB 7LIKELY WIN62% @FLA1590 milesFEB 9LIKELY LOSS34% @TB1409 milesFEB 11LIKELY WIN68% @PHI414 miles
The most likely scenario over the next 3 games is a record of 2-1 (47% chance). Their chances of winning their next 3 are 26.4%. At #8 in the conference, they are behind the Canadiens by one point. With a +0.55 advantage in projected wins over their next 3 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Sabres by 2 points. With a +1.6 advantage in projected wins over their next 3 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Penguins are the most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Penguins are playing 5 games, traveling 9137 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #5 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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The latest over/under line is 6 but in simulations the average total points is quite different and you can visit Sportsline.com to find out what side of the line you want to be on.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 25-15-6 the Penguins are behind their money line projected win total of 26.4 wins. They have won 52% of their road games and were expected to win 53%. At home they have a 57% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 62%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 7-3-0 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 5.7 wins. We have simulated the Penguins playing every other team on neutral ice (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 64.3% of the time (#2 in the league). They have moved up from #7 in the league back on 11/28.
Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.59 which ranks #6 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #12. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #2 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #14 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.5 which ranks them #7 over this stretch, slightly worse than the season overall.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 46 Games||3.52 (#5)||10.8% (#7)||32.6 (#8)|
|Road||3.48 (#4)||10.7% (#6)||32.7 (#8)|
|Home||3.57 (#5)||11% (#7)||32.5 (#14)|
|Last 6 Games||3.83 (#4)||11.6% (#9)||33 (#5)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||2.93 (#14)||91% (#8)||32.6 (#24)|
|Road||2.74 (#4)||91.2% (#6||31.2 (#13)|
|Home||3.13 (#25)||90.8% (#18)||34 (#29)|
|Last 6 Games||3.33 (#24)||88.9% (#23)||30 (#16)|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Penguins are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 8.9% chance of winning it all. On 12/3 they had a 2.3% chance before increasing to 14.9% on 1/10. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 11.5%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 14.3%. They have a 37.1% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (64%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 71% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 39.4%. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the East (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the Finals 19.3% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Easiest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #11 Toughest
Penguins' Championship Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected PTS||Playoff%||Champ||NHL Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Sidney Crosby||4||100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #4)|
|Phil Kessel||3.5||100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #7)|
|Evgeni Malkin||3.8||100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #12)|
|Kris Letang||2.6||100% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #4)|
|Jake Guentzel||3||95% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #19)|
|Matt Murray||4||86% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #10)|