NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The forecast for their next 6 games is very good. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)FEB 11CLOSE GAME59% @PHI414 milesFEB 13LIKELY WIN68% EDM--FEB 16CLOSE GAME52% CGY--FEB 17**LIKELY WIN76% NYR--FEB 19LIKELY WIN69% @NJ493 milesFEB 21CLOSE GAME52% SJ--FEB 23LIKELY WIN63% @PHI414 milesFEB 26CLOSE GAME56% @CLB262 milesMAR 1CLOSE GAME56% @BUF286 milesMAR 2**LIKELY WIN66% @MON514 miles
The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (33% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 5.8%. At #8 in the conference, they are behind the Blue Jackets by 2 points. They have a +1.14 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Hurricanes by one point. With a +1.2 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Penguins are the 18th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Penguins are playing 7 games, traveling 1814 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #31 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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According to Sportsline the Pittsburgh Penguins are -120 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 28-20-7 Penguins 'should have' 31 wins. They have 19 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 7 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 46% of their road games and were expected to win 52%. At home they have a 56% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 61%. Losers of 4 in a row they have a 13.1% chance of seeing that extend to 6 straight, but they also have a 20.9% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. The Penguins perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 60.6% of the time (#5 in the league). They have moved up from #7 in the league back on 11/28.
Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.33 which ranks #8 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #13. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #14 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.86 (#26 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 55 Games||3.42 (#6)||10.5% (#7)||32.5 (#10)|
|Road||3.36 (#6)||10.3% (#8)||32.7 (#10)|
|Home||3.48 (#5)||10.8% (#7)||32.3 (#12)|
|Last 7 Games||2.86 (#17)||9.2% (#13)||31.1 (#25)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||3.09 (#20)||90.6% (#9)||33 (#27)|
|Road||2.96 (#11)||90.7% (#11||32 (#17)|
|Home||3.22 (#27)||90.6% (#19)||34.1 (#29)|
|Last 7 Games||3.71 (#25)||89.5% (#21)||35.4 (#23)|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Penguins are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 8.9% chance of winning it all. On 12/3 they had a 2.3% chance before increasing to 14.9% on 1/10. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 5.3%. Before the start of their 4 game losing streak they were at 10.7%. They have a 17% chance of winning their division. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #8 in the conference) and have a 93% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (31%) at getting home ice advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 50% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 23.2%. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the East (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the Finals 10.3% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #11 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #11 Toughest
Penguins' Championship Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected PTS||Playoff%||Champ||NHL Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Sidney Crosby||3.6||100% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #6)|
|Phil Kessel||3.2||100% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #7)|
|Kris Letang||2.4||100% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #4)|
|Jake Guentzel||2.7||96% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #16)|
|Matt Murray||4||86% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #10)|
|Patric Hornqvist||2.2||84% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #21)|