Who is the Best FanDuel Value? Rielly at $6.4, Carlson at $6.3, or Jones at $5.7?

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

John Carlson is underrated on FanDuel with a projected 17 FD pts (#2 among defensemen). He is the #4 highest priced defenseman ($6300). Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Carlson is worth $8K. He is projected for more points than 2 higher priced options: Kris Letang (16.8 FP) and Morgan Rielly (15.8 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 13.4 FPs, a value reached in 22 of 45 games (49%). The combined 'cover percentage' for defensemen priced at $4.0K and above is 43%.

  • 1/18 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: WAS 3.5 (#3 Most Today) vs NYI 3 (#8 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 17.05 Fantasy Points (#2), 1.09 points (#1), 0.2 goals (#10), 0.89 assists (#1), 2.56 shots on goal (#10), 0.4 PIM (#41 most), 1.9 blocked shots (#16)

Carlson is in the SportsLine FanDuel optimal lineup based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He is not in the DraftKings optimal lineup but Alexander Edler is.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Based on a projected 4.6 DraftKings points Carlson is fairly ranked. At $6200 he is expected to be the #4 defenseman. Based on 1/18 salaries and projected points per dollar, Carlson is worth $7K. Seth Jones (4.7 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. Based on salary, he is expected to have 4.1 FPs, a value reached in 21 of 45 games (47%). The combined 'cover percentage' for defenseman priced at $4.0K and above is 39%.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among defensemen for the rest of week 16 is #1, which is better than his market rank of #3. When compared to other defensemen in week 17 Erik Karlsson (4.9 FP) is projected for more points and is starting in fewer leagues. Starting in 98% of leagues he is expected to produce 4.8 fantasy points (WK 17). Week 17 market expectations match his projection. He is expected to be the #2 defenseman (projected to be #2).

He is projected for 4.76 fantasy points in week 17 (#2 D) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
4.76 (#2) 
Points 
0.92 (#5) 
Goals 
 
0.17 (#11)
Assists 
0.75 (#4) 
SOG 
 
2.47 (#18)
PIM 
 
0.4 (#68)
Blocks 
 
2.21 (#16)
+/- 
 
-0.25 (#141)

  • Based on 1/18 start percentages, John Carlson is valued behind Rielly and above Josi and the projections agree for this week.
  • Jan 22Jan 23
    2.7 FP vs SJ2.1 FP @TOR

    John Carlson last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    1/15 @NSH4 FP, 8 FD, 2 DK18 TOI, 0 SOG, 1 PTS, 0 G, 1 A, -2 PIM
    1/14 vs STL-2 FP, 3 FD, 1 DK24 TOI, 1 SOG, 0 PTS, 0 G, 0 A, -2 PIM
    1/12 vs CLB3 FP, 16 FD, 4 DK27 TOI, 4 SOG, 1 PTS, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PIM
    1/10 @BOS3 FP, 3 FD, 1 DK26 TOI, 0 SOG, 0 PTS, 0 G, 0 A, 3 PIM
    1/8 vs PHI6 FP, 21 FD, 6 DK24 TOI, 0 SOG, 2 PTS, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PIM

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    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    There are 9 defensemen owned in 100% of leagues and John Carlson is projected to be the #2 among them. Using actual fantasy production and current start percentage as the first and second tie-breaker, his market rank is #3. Based on projections, he is trending up slightly. He is projected for 98 fantasy points in 35 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#3) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks John Carlson behind Burns and above Letang but the projections rank John Carlson over Burns.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    98 (#2) 
    Points36 (#2) 
     
    Goals 
     
    6 (#13)
    Assists29 (#2) 
     
    SOG 
     
    90 (#22)
    PIM 
     
    16 (#107)
    Blocks 
     
    78 (#15)
    +/- 
     
    6 (#30)

    His rank in goals is better than his SOG rank indicating a relatively high shooting %.