Yandle ($5.3), Hamilton ($5.2), Werenski ($5.1): DK Projections Decide Best Value

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Projected for 3.9 DraftKings pts Dougie Hamilton is the #7 ranked defenseman. He is the #10 highest priced defenseman ($5200). Based on the projection, Hamilton is worth $6K. He is projected for more points than 3 higher priced options: Jeff Petry (3.4 FP), Keith Yandle (3.8 FP), and Thomas Chabot (3.8 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 3.4 FPs, a value reached in 20 of 46 games (43%). The combined 'cover percentage' for defenseman priced at $4.0K and above is 39%.

  • 1/18 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: CAR 3.6 (#2 Most Today) vs OTT 2.9 (#9 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 3.94 Fantasy Points (#7), 0.57 points (#15), 0.23 goals (#6), 0.34 assists (#22), 4.17 shots on goal (#1), 0.6 PIM (#19 most), 0.95 blocked shots (#84)

FANDUEL VALUE: Dougie Hamilton is underrated on FanDuel with a projected 13.8 FD pts (#9 among defensemen). At $4900 he is expected to be the #12 defenseman. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $6.5K. Shea Weber is also priced at $4900, and Hamilton is a better option at this price. Alexander Edler (15.9 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. He is projected for more points than 4 higher priced options: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (10.5 FP), Rasmus Ristolainen (11.8 FP), Jeff Petry (12.1 FP), and Zach Werenski (13.3 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 10.4 FPs, a value reached in 20 of 46 games (43%). The combined 'cover percentage' for defensemen priced at $4.0K and above is 43%.

Hamilton is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

If you are in a league that allows for substitutions during the week Dougie Hamilton is a good value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #38 while his projection rank (rest of week 16) is #15. When compared to other defensemen in week 17 instead of Hamilton consider these better options at lower start percentages: Nate Schmidt (2.8 FP), Colin Miller (3.1 FP), Shea Theodore (2.7 FP), Brad Hunt (2.7 FP), and Thomas Chabot (2.7 FP). He is projected for more points than 4 other defensemen starting in more leagues: Drew Doughty (1.6 FP), Keith Yandle (2.2 FP), Jake Gardiner (1.4 FP), and Erik Gustafsson (2 FP). Starting in 65% of leagues he is expected to produce 2 fantasy points (WK 17). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #30 defenseman of week 17. He is projected to be better than that (the #23 defenseman).

Lower Start%D. Hamilton WK 17Higher Start%
N. Schmidt (2.8 FP)2.3 FPD. Doughty (1.6 FP)
C. Miller (3 FP)#30 DefensemanK. Yandle (2.2 FP)
S. Theodore (2.7 FP) 
J. Gardiner (1.4 FP)
B. Hunt (2.7 FP) 
E. Gustafsson (2 FP)
T. Chabot (2.7 FP) 
 

He is projected for 2.3 fantasy points in week 17 (#23 D) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
2.3 (#23) 
Points 
 
0.47 (#37)
Goals0.18 (#9) 
 
Assists 
 
0.28 (#51)
SOG3.92 (#2) 
 
PIM 
0.6 (#28) 
Blocks 
 
1.01 (#125)
+/- 
 
-0.03 (#90)

  • Based on 1/18 start %s the market values Ekman-Larsson over Dougie Hamilton but the projections do not agree for week 17.
  • Jan 22Jan 23
    1 FP @CGY1.3 FP @VAN

    Dougie Hamilton last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    1/15 @NYR0 FP, 10 FD, 3 DK22 TOI, 4 SOG, 0 PTS, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PIM
    1/13 vs NSH0 FP, 6 FD, 2 DK18 TOI, 3 SOG, 0 PTS, 0 G, 0 A, -1 PIM
    1/11 vs BUF0 FP, 5 FD, 2 DK15 TOI, 3 SOG, 0 PTS, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PIM
    1/10 @TB4 FP, 13 FD, 4 DK19 TOI, 2 SOG, 1 PTS, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PIM
    1/8 @NYI5 FP, 10 FD, 2 DK15 TOI, 1 SOG, 1 PTS, 0 G, 1 A, 2 PIM

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    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    His latest projection based rank among defensemen is #43. Ranking by ownership percentage (80%), Dougie Hamilton is expected to be the #38 defenseman for the rest of the season. Dougie Hamilton's market rank is better than our current projections indicate. He is projected for 46 fantasy points in 35 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#51) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Dougie Hamilton behind Theodore and above Nurse but the projections rank these players in reverse order.

    Lower Own%D. Hamilton ROSHigher Own%
    T. Brodie (46 FP)46 FPO. Ekman-Larsson (46 FP)
    M. Green (48 FP)#38 DefensemanS. Theodore (41 FP)
    D. Severson (48 FP) 
    C. McAvoy (46 FP)
    A. Edler (65 FP) 
    R. Dahlin (39 FP)
    C. Miller (48 FP) 
     
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    46 (#42) 
    Points 
    17 (#37) 
    Goals7 (#8) 
     
    Assists 
     
    10 (#68)
    SOG142 (#2) 
     
    PIM 
     
    22 (#56)
    Blocks 
     
    38 (#177)
    +/- 
     
    -2 (#161)

    His projected shooting percentage is lower than you would like.