Zach Werenski is Only 21 But is Already on a Downward Career Trend

SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Zach Werenski had a good fantasy season and was a 'second tier' fantasy star. He is the #163 ranked fantasy skater this season and the #35 defender. His high ranking is definitely helped by his number of games played (83). Based on average fantasy points he is the #53 defender. He peaked early in the season. He averaged 2.1 FPs in his first 27 games and 1.8 FP in his final 28 games. He is young, so his late season drop-off should not be an indicator of an overall downward trend heading into next season. His standard deviation divided by his average is 1.83 which is close to the league ratio. Our projected ceiling for Werenski when he 'goes off' is 18 fantasy points (his average is 1.8FPs).

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DOWNWARD STATISTICAL CAREER TREND

He is getting less productive when, based on age, he should be reaching his peak. His three season trend shows a 25% decline in fantasy points per game.

SEASON TREND'18-19'17-18'16-17
Fantasy Points150158188
FP Average1.82.12.4
Regular Season GP837778
PTS0.50.50.6
GOALS0.10.20.1
ASSISTS0.40.30.5
SOG2.02.72.4
BS1.11.21.2

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

He has averaged 5.7 fantasy points per week and had 12 weeks where he exceeded that by 20% and 11 'bad' weeks where he came up 20% short of his average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL5.7 FP per Week1211
Week 11 (2 games 0.5 per game)-4.7
Week 28.5 (3 games 2.8 per game)+2.8
Week 37 (2 games 3.5 per game)+1.3
Week 415 (3 games 5 per game)+9.3
Week 52 (4 games 0.5 per game)-3.7
Week 64 (3 games 1.3 per game)-1.7
Week 710 (3 games 3.3 per game)+4.3
Week 80 (3 games 0 per game)-5.7
Week 95 (3 games 1.7 per game)
Week 10-0.5 (3 games -0.2 per game)-6.2
Week 110.5 (3 games 0.2 per game)-5.2
Week 129.5 (4 games 2.4 per game)+3.8
Week 138 (2 games 4 per game)+2.3
Week 1414 (3 games 4.7 per game)+8.3
Week 157 (4 games 1.8 per game)+1.3
Week 162 (3 games 0.7 per game)-3.7
Week 18-2.5 (3 games -0.8 per game)-8.2
Week 197 (3 games 2.3 per game)+1.3
Week 206 (3 games 2 per game)
Week 217 (4 games 1.8 per game)+1.3
Week 224 (4 games 1 per game)-1.7
Week 233 (3 games 1 per game)-2.7
Week 2417 (4 games 4.2 per game)+11.3
Week 256 (3 games 2 per game)
Week 2611 (4 games 2.8 per game)+5.3
Week 27-4 (3 games -1.3 per game)-9.7

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

His FanDuel average was 9.9 points and on DraftKings it was 2.8 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 1 and on FanDuel it was 3.2 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 5 and 18.4 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All9.9 ($5.2K)20 G, 37 B2.8 ($4.9K)21 G, 38 B
4/6 @OTT1.6 ($5.3K)-8.30.5 ($5K)-2.3
4/5 @NYR8 ($5.3K)--2.5 ($5K)--
4/2 BOS9.6 ($5.4K)--3 ($4.7K)--
3/31 @BUF11.2 ($5.3K)--3 ($4.9K)--
3/30 @NSH6.4 ($5.3K)-3.52 ($4.9K)-0.8
3/28 MON4.8 ($5.4K)-5.11.5 ($5.2K)-1.3
3/26 NYI8.5 ($5.6K)--2 ($5.2K)-0.8
3/24 @VAN3.2 ($5.4K)-6.71 ($5K)-1.8
3/21 @EDM4.8 ($5.5K)-5.11.5 ($4.7K)-1.3
3/19 @CGY23.7 ($5.4K)+13.86 ($4.7K)+3.2
3/16 @BOS6.4 ($5.4K)-3.52 ($4.8K)-0.8
3/15 CAR6.4 ($5.4K)-3.52 ($4.7K)-0.8
3/12 BOS42.9 ($5.1K)+3311 ($4K)+8.2
3/11 @NYI8 ($5.3K)--2.5 ($4K)--
3/9 PIT9.6 ($5.3K)--2.5 ($5.1K)--
3/7 @PIT4.8 ($5.5K)-5.11.5 ($5.1K)-1.3
3/5 @NJ1.6 ($5.5K)-8.30.5 ($5K)-2.3
3/3 WPG17.6 ($5.3K)+7.75 ($5K)+2.2
3/2 EDM8--2.5--
2/28 PHI11.2 ($5.1K)--3 ($4.7K)--
2/26 PIT10.1 ($4.8K)--2.5 ($4.6K)--
2/23 SJ11.7--3 ($4.6K)--
2/22 @OTT11.2 ($4.8K)--3 ($4.7K)--
2/19 @MON6.4 ($4.9K)-3.52 ($4.7K)-0.8
2/18 TB6.4 ($4.9K)-3.52 ($4.2K)-0.8
2/16 @CHI1.6 ($4.9K)-8.30.5 ($4.5K)-2.3
2/14 NYI11.2 ($4.8K)--3.5 ($4.1K)+0.7
2/12 WAS12.8 ($4.8K)+2.93.5 ($4.2K)+0.7
2/9 @LV11.7 ($4.7K)--3 ($4.3K)--
2/7 @ARI3.2 ($4.8K)-6.71 ($4.5K)-1.8
2/5 @COL9.6 ($5.1K)--2.5 ($4.7K)--
2/2 STL6.4 ($5.2K)-3.52 ($4.7K)-0.8
1/31 @WPG3.2 ($5.3K)-6.71 ($4.5K)-1.8
1/29 BUF6.4 ($5.4K)-3.52 ($4.9K)-0.8
1/19 @MIN6.4 ($5.4K)-3.52 ($5K)-0.8
1/18 MON3.2 ($5.5K)-6.71 ($5.1K)-1.8
1/15 NJ13.3 ($5.5K)+3.43.5 ($5.1K)+0.7
1/13 NYR19.2 ($5.5K)+9.35.5 ($4.9K)+2.7
1/12 @WAS6.4 ($5.5K)-3.52 ($4.8K)-0.8
1/10 NSH21.3 ($5.4K)+11.45.5 ($4.8K)+2.7
1/8 @TB4.8 ($5.4K)-5.11.5 ($4.9K)-1.3
1/5 @FLA4.8 ($5.4K)-5.11.5 ($5K)-1.3
1/4 @CAR12.8 ($5.4K)+2.93.5 ($4.9K)+0.7
12/31 OTT33.6 ($5K)+23.79 ($4.6K)+6.2
12/28 TOR14.4 ($4.8K)+4.54 ($4.3K)+1.2
12/27 @NYR18.4 ($4.8K)+8.55 ($4.4K)+2.2
12/23 @NJ11.2--3--
12/22 @PHI15.2--4--
12/20 NJ6.4 ($4.8K)-3.52 ($4.3K)-0.8
12/17 LV3.2 ($4.9K)-6.71 ($4.4K)-1.8
12/15 ANA3.2 ($4.9K)-6.71 ($4.1K)-1.8
12/13 LA3.2 ($4.9K)-6.71 ($4.5K)-1.8
12/11 VAN4.8 ($4.9K)-5.11.5 ($4.5K)-1.3
12/8 WAS4.8 ($5.1K)-5.11.5 ($4.4K)-1.3
12/6 @PHI3.2 ($5.1K)-6.71 ($4.8K)-1.8
12/4 CGY16.8 ($5.1K)+6.94.5 ($4.4K)+1.7
12/1 @NYI8 ($5.1K)--2.5 ($5.2K)--
11/29 MIN14.4 ($5.1K)+4.54 ($4.8K)+1.2
11/26 @DET10.1 ($5.1K)--2.5 ($4.8K)--
11/24 @PIT6.4 ($5.3K)-3.52 ($4.9K)-0.8
11/23 TOR4.8 ($5.3K)-5.11.5 ($4.8K)-1.3
11/19 @TOR3.2 ($5.3K)-6.71 ($5.1K)-1.8
11/17 @CAR20 ($5.3K)+10.15.5 ($5.1K)+2.7
11/15 FLA11.2 ($5.1K)--3 ($5K)--
11/12 @DAL4.8 ($5.5K)-5.11.5 ($4.8K)-1.3
11/10 NYR1.6 ($5.2K)-8.30.5 ($5.2K)-2.3
11/9 @WAS11.7 ($5.2K)--3 ($4.9K)--
11/6 DAL13.3 ($5.2K)+3.43.5 ($4.9K)+0.7
11/4 @ANA8 ($5.5K)--2.5 ($4.9K)--
11/3 @LA18.4 ($5.5K)+8.55 ($4.7K)+2.2
11/1 @SJ4.8 ($5.4K)-5.11.5 ($5.4K)-1.3
10/30 DET4.8 ($5.5K)-5.11.5 ($5.7K)-1.3
10/27 BUF11.2 ($5.5K)--3 ($5.6K)--
10/25 @STL17 ($5.5K)+7.14 ($5.3K)+1.2
10/23 ARI9.6 ($5.5K)--2.5 ($5.8K)--
10/20 CHI20 ($5.6K)+10.15.5 ($5.7K)+2.7
10/18 PHI11.2 ($5.4K)--3 ($5.5K)--
10/13 @TB6.4 ($5.2K)-3.52 ($4.9K)-0.8
10/11 @FLA27.4 ($5.2K)+17.57 ($4.8K)+4.2
10/9 COL8 ($5.4K)--2.5 ($5.4K)--
10/5 CAR3.2 ($5.6K)-6.71 ($6.1K)-1.8
10/4 @DET14.4 ($5.6K)+4.54.5 ($5.8K)+1.7