headshot
Semyon
Varlamov
College None
Team Colorado Avalanche
1G
6'2"Height
205Weight
30Age
0Exp
Semyon Varlamov's Fantasy Scouting Report

REST OF SEASON VALUE

As of 3/24, Semyon Varlamov is the #18 ranked goalie based on ownership percentage (72%). The projections have him 10 spots higher in the rankings. Even as an established quality fantasy option, if he lives up to projections he is still undervalued and there could be an opportunity to buy 'low'. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better goalie option available. He is projected for 34 fantasy points in 7 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#47) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Semyon Varlamov behind Lehner and above Rittich but the projections rank these players in reverse order.

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He is projected for more wins as than you would expect based on his save percentage rank.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

If you are in a league that allows for substitutions during the week Semyon Varlamov is a good value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #18 while his projection rank (rest of week 25) is #7. When compared to other goalies in week 26 instead of Varlamov consider these better options at lower start percentages: Robin Lehner (14.5 FP), Petr Mrazek (12.8 FP), Cory Schneider (11.4 FP), Henrik Lundqvist (16.4 FP), and Jimmy Howard (14.6 FP). He is projected for more points than 3 other goalies starting in more leagues: Devan Dubnyk (10.4 FP), Pekka Rinne (10.6 FP), and John Gibson (6.8 FP). Starting in 40% of leagues he is expected to produce 12.9 fantasy points (WK 26). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #19 goalie of the week, but he is projected to be the #26 goalie. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 1.9 short of expectations. Even though his per game projected FP average is not better than normal, he will benefit from playing 2 games.

He is projected for 11.01 fantasy points in week 26 (#26 G) in 2 games.


  • Based on 3/24 start percentages, Semyon Varlamov is valued behind Crawford and above Greiss but the projections rank Semyon Varlamov over Crawford in week 26.
  • Semyon Varlamov last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE (3/24): Semyon Varlamov is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 4.1 DK pts (#5 among goalies). He is the #11 highest priced goalie ($7100). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $7.1K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Based on salary, he is expected to have 4.1 FPs, a value reached in 19 of 72 games (26%). The combined 'cover percentage' for goalie priced at $4.0K and above is 24%.

    Varlamov is in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He is not in the FanDuel optimal lineup but Antti Niemi is.

    FANDUEL VALUE: Semyon Varlamov is underrated on FanDuel with a projected 16.4 FD pts (#5 among goalies). At $7700 he is expected to be the #8 goalie. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $8.1K. Philipp Grubauer is also priced at $7700, and Varlamov is a better option at this price. Antti Niemi (17.7 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. Based on salary, he is expected to have 15.6 FPs, a value reached in 22 of 72 games (31%). The combined 'cover percentage' for goalies priced at $4.0K and above is 26%.

    SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

    Semyon Varlamov had an OK fantasy season if you were expecting to have him on the bench and only start in certain weeks. He was the number #24 ranked goalie. His ranking drops to the #43 ranked goalie when basing it on average fantasy points. His production dropped throughout the season. In his first 15 games he averaged 6.1 FPs and that declined to 5.2 in his final 16 games. Using standard deviation as an indicator of consistency, Varlamov is relatively inconsistent capable of very high highs and equally low lows. He averaged 5 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 16 fantasy points.

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    STATISTICAL DROPOFF FROM PREVIOUS SEASON

    Varlamov is getting older which might explain his drop-off in production. His average fantasy points decreased by 12% this season.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 9.7 fantasy points per week and had 11 weeks where he came up short (below 80% of average) and had 9 weeks where he was +20% above average.

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 16.1 FD points and 4 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was -1.4 and on FanDuel it was -5.6 fantasy points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On Draftkings it was 8 and on FanDuel it was 32 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    Career Stats
    YEARTEAMGPWLTOTMINSGASOGAAAPIM
    2018COL47191809272313022.8602
    2017COL51241606286112822.6802
    2016COL246171013487613.3810
    2015COL57272503315914822.8106
    2014COL57282008330714152.5604
    2013COL63411426364014622.4132
    2012COL3511210319509833.0210
    2011COL53262413315113642.5912
    2010WAS271190515605822.2302
    2009WAS261540615276522.5510
    2008WAS640013291302.3702
    Career (11 Seasons)446212168450255541139252.67722
    2018-19 Situational Stats
    CATEGORYGPWLTOTMINSGASOGAAAPIM
    Games in October842024811301.6200
    Games in November953015362703.0200
    Games in December823024182713.8800
    Games in January624003531702.8902
    Games in February1253047013212.7400
    Games in March413002331403.6100
    CATEGORYGPWLTOTMINSGASOGAAAPIM
    Games Won191900011463421.7800
    Games Lost280180915779603.6502
    CATEGORYGPWLTOTMINSGASOGAAAPIM
    Home Games241080513846312.7300
    Road Games239100413386713.0002
    CATEGORYGPWLTOTMINSGASOGAAAPIM
    Before All-Star Break3113120517888412.8202
    CATEGORYGPWLTOTMINSGASOGAAAPIM
    Amalie Arena10100285010.7100
    American Airlines Center1010053303.4000
    Barclays Center1000162403.8700
    Bell Centre1010059202.0300
    Bell MTS Place21100118502.5400
    Bridgestone Arena1100060202.0000
    Canadian Tire Centre1010056404.2902
    Capital One Arena1000164403.7500
    KeyBank Center1100060101.0000
    Little Caesars Arena110006001.0000
    Madison Square Garden1000165201.8500
    PPG Paints Arena1010058606.2100
    Pepsi Center241080513846312.7300
    Rogers Place1100060101.0000
    SAP Center at San Jose1010058404.1400
    STAPLES Center1100060303.0000
    Scotiabank Arena1100060303.0000
    Scotiabank Saddledome202001151005.2200
    TD Garden1000164201.8800
    United Center1100060303.0000
    Wells Fargo Center1100060101.0000
    Xcel Energy Center1010058202.0700
    CATEGORYGPWLTOTMINSGASOGAAAPIM
    After All-Star Break1666049344612.9600
    vs Anaheim Ducks1010059404.0700
    vs Boston Bruins21001124502.4200
    vs Buffalo Sabres1100060101.0000
    vs Calgary Flames302011761304.4300
    vs Chicago Blackhawks21001121602.9800
    vs Dallas Stars32100173903.1200
    vs Detroit Red Wings22000122311.4800
    vs Edmonton Oilers2100093402.5800
    vs Florida Panthers1000160404.0000
    vs Los Angeles Kings32001180702.3300
    vs Minnesota Wild21100118301.5300
    vs Montreal Canadiens1010059202.0300
    vs Nashville Predators31200179802.6800
    vs New York Islanders20101120703.5000
    vs New York Rangers1000165201.8500
    vs Ottawa Senators1010056404.2902
    vs Philadelphia Flyers22000120301.5000
    vs Pittsburgh Penguins1010058606.2100
    vs San Jose Sharks1010058404.1400
    vs St. Louis Blues20101120502.5000
    vs Tampa Bay Lightning2020086604.1900
    vs Toronto Maple Leafs2110087704.8300
    vs Vancouver Canucks21100125703.3600
    vs Washington Capitals1000164403.7500
    vs Winnipeg Jets32100178602.0200
    CATEGORYGPWLTOTMINSGASOGAAAPIM
    vs Vegas Golden Knights110006001.0000
    vs Western Conference Tms2812110416407612.7800
    vs Own Division1576028893702.5000
    vs Eastern Conference Tms19770510835412.9902
    Outside Own Division3212120718349323.0402
    Overall47191809272313022.8602
    2018 Game Log
    OCTOBERSTATISTICS
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTMINSWLOTLGASVSASV%SOPIM
    10/04vsW4-160100120210.95200
    10/06vsW5-260100235370.94600
    10/11@W6-160100130310.96800
    10/13vsL3-260001338410.92700
    10/16@L3-265000241430.95300
    10/22@W4-160100137380.97400
    10/24vsL1-058010123240.95800
    10/27@L3-258010225270.92600
    NOVEMBERSTATISTICS
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTMINSWLOTLGASVSASV%SOPIM
    11/01@L6-557010631370.83800
    11/07vsL4-160010330330.90900
    11/09@L5-258010419230.82600
    11/11@W4-160100126270.96300
    11/14vsW6-360100320230.87000
    11/21@W7-360100333360.91700
    11/24vsW3-260100227290.93100
    11/27@W3-260100236380.94700
    11/30vsL3-261001334370.91900
    DECEMBERSTATISTICS
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTMINSWLOTLGASVSASV%SOPIM
    12/02@W2-060100024241.00010
    12/04@L6-358010626320.81300
    12/08@L7-128010518230.78300
    12/11vsL6-434000315180.83300
    12/15vsW6-460100438420.90500
    12/17vsL4-158010317200.85000
    12/29vsL3-261001334370.91900
    12/31vsL3-261001315180.83300
    JANUARYSTATISTICS
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTMINSWLOTLGASVSASV%SOPIM
    01/09@L5-358010411150.73300
    01/12@L3-059010228300.93300
    01/14@W6-360100317200.85000
    01/16@L5-256010426300.86702
    01/19vsW7-160100130310.96800
    01/21vsL4-160010323260.88500
    FEBRUARYSTATISTICS
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTMINSWLOTLGASVSASV%SOPIM
    02/02vsL5-160010521260.80800
    02/07@L4-364001438420.90500
    02/09@L4-362001437410.90200
    02/10@L2-164001233350.94300
    02/12vsL5-227010413170.76500
    02/14@W4-160100124250.96000
    02/16vsL3-059010230320.93800
    02/18vsW3-060100040401.00010
    02/20vsW7-160100126270.96300
    02/22@W5-360100341440.93200
    02/25vsL4-360001434380.89500
    02/27vsW3-265100230320.93800
    MARCHSTATISTICS
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTMINSWLOTLGASVSASV%SOPIM
    03/01@L4-358010436400.90000
    03/05vsW4-362100320230.87000
    03/07@L4-053010326290.89700
    03/15vsL5-359010432360.88900